Withdrawal of U.S. Forces from Iraq: Possible Timelines and Estimated Costs

President Obama has announced that all U.S. combat operations for the war inIraq-also called Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF)-will cease by the end ofAugust 2010. According to the timeline described by Administration officials, theapproximately 128,000 U.S. military personnel currently in Iraq would remain therethrough the Iraqi elections scheduled for January 2010. After that, U.S. forces woulddecline to no more than 50,000 troops by the end of August 2010. In accordancewith the Status of the Forces Agreement signed by Iraq and the United States inNovember 2008, the remaining 50,000 U.S. troops must leave the country by the endof December 2011. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that to complywith that timeline, the Administration will need to withdraw military personnelfrom Iraq in two stages: one between the Iraqi election and August 2010, when almost80,000 U.S. troops would be removed over a period of seven months, and the otherbefore the end of calendar year 2011, when 50,000 troops will need to be withdrawn.CBO estimated two broad categories of costs under the Administration's plan andunder several alternatives. Some of those costs-which the Department of Defense(DoD) calls operations costs-including incremental military personnel costs attributableto the war in Iraq and costs for fuel, transportation, and maintenance of equipmentin Iraq, would decrease proportionately with the number of service members inthe country. Such costs, therefore, would be essentially zero by fiscal year 2013 when, under the Administration's plan, no U.S. forces would remain in Iraq. CBO estimatedother costs, for activities that DoD labels "equipment reconstitution," that would notdecrease proportionately with the number of troops: costs to repair equipment that isused in the war and returned to the United States and costs to replace equipment lostin the conduct of the war. CBO estimates that costs for operations and equipmentreconstitution under the Administration's plan would total $51 billion in 2010 andwould decline to $3 billion by 2013