What's the Worst That Could Happen?: A Rational Response to the Climate Change Debate

We've all been inundated with the pros and cons of the global warming and climate change debate. And probably most of us are inclined to believe that the world will warm, polar bears will suffer, lawns will turn brown, and cars will get smaller. The breezy hillsides will become populated with windmills, the southwest desert will host large solar-thermal farms, our utilities will watch our energy use through smart meters, and new power transmission lines will link wind and solar power to our population centers. All this change will happen to run our electric cars, our virtual meetings, our air conditioning, our refrigerators, and our wide-screen televisions. That doesn't sound particularly disrupting, just a little expensive. Between that and a health care solution, we will be set for the 21st Century. Not so fast Bubba. Have you really taken a look at the assumptions you are making and how you arrived at you conclusion? For most of us, I suspect our thinking is, `Yeah, we may get warmer but the jury is still out on how bad the impact might be even if we could do much about it. And I can hardly afford my mortgage, my health insurance, my car payment, the college tuition, my tax bill, my (taxpayer) share of all of these under-funded pension plans, and the occasional vacation to Yosemite or the Grand Canyon the way it is. I think I'll pass on most of these expensive carbon-footprint reducing actions.' Global warming is not yet `in our face' - real, ugly, and frightening - so it is easy to discount the need to `really' do something about it. Something that takes conscious decisions that reduce the choices we thought we would be able to make like buying that useful SUV, acquiring that 52" LED flat panel HDTV, investing in that continuing education tuition, or expanding out of our cramped home as the kids start arriving. It's all due to a biological fault in this phase of our evolution. In the last 10,000 years our `fight or flight' quick reaction mechanism has become less and less essential to our survival. Instead, it is becoming more important to exercise longer-term planning skills that have emerged over the last thirty years. These skills include scenario planning, risk-reward analysis (expected value), real options, and systems thinking. Unfortunately, these are not nearly as natural and persuasive and suffer unexpected `long tail' effects as opposed to clear `in your face - fight or flight' decision-making. Greg Craven addresses our shortcomings for effective long term planning to protect ourselves and, more importantly, our children and their children. He has used his own experience in teaching students about physics and chemistry to engage them in refining his `rational decision' process. How to sort through all of the contrary points-of-view, focusing not on searching for what is the right answer about the extent and degree of global warming risk, but rather on what we risk if we make the wrong bet. His approach is to focus on what we c

Whether you are already convinced of the threat of climate change and want to learn how to help correct it (or want to help convince someone else) or a skeptic who wants to make absolutely sure of your convictions, or even someone who doesn't care about the climate change debate at all, you will take something from this book. Craven presents, in a clear and easy-to-digest way, a new way of thinking about not only the issue at hand, but any sort of difficult decision. If you want to train your mind to think better, please buy this book. And one for your sibling. And cousin. And friend. And co-worker. And someone you see on the street.

We all lead busy lives so it is tempting to leave the big issues to the major players - the government, the experts, big business. But if there is a lesson to be learned from the current mess our economy is in, it is that when we leave it to the big guys, we may not like what we get! That's why I find this to be such a timely book. Whether you are of the camp that global climate change is a disaster that will suck us all into a black hole of doom, whether you believe that it is the biggest hoax ever perpetrated on the American public and that `warmers' are the equivalent of domestic terrorists, or whether you are too busy to have given it much thought one way or the other, it is important to have a well-considered opinion on what may be the most important issue of our times. While Craven does have an opinion (he fesses up early on), this book is not about what he believes, nor is it an attempt to persuade you to his opinion. This book is about using critical thinking skills to reach a rational, informed opinion of your very own. For me, the opening chapters on tools for thinking are his best. I don't know if these skills are being taught in our schools, but they should be. These are skills that can be put to work, not just in the global climate change debate, but in our daily lives -- and could save us a lot of grief. For example, we are all subject to confirmation bias (just one of the hazards of being human). But if we allow our bias to blind us to all evidence contrary to our opinion, we do ourselves a great disservice. Greg puts it this way, "Confirmation bias is worse than a thief who just takes your money. It's a con man who tricks you into happily volunteering your money because you think you're getting a great deal - and you thank him for it! What a shyster!" As far as I can tell, this book is unique in the genre -- Craven comes at the issue from an entirely new perspective. And it's easy-to-read - he is not your academic with pages of footnotes and copious citations. Craven has a whacky sense of humor (if you've seen his YouTube videos, you know what I mean!) and a `guy next door' approach. Well worth it!

This book is outstanding for educators looking to teach their students about risk management and climate change. The value in its critical thinking skills development is worth the cost alone. I highly recommend it to everyone.

I cannot recommend this book enough; it's based on a wildly popular and critically acclaimed set of videos originally aired on YouTube which garnered many millions of hits on various websites.How It All Ends (Single Disc Edition) Greg Craven has the spark of genius in the way he cuts through all the confusing "it will, it won't, it will too!". On the one hand we have clever wordy scientists and on the other, crafty manipulative, articulate global warming deniers (Ok, I'm a little biased on this one!) and the poor ordinary bloke doesn't know who to believe in the shouting match. He/she just wants to know what's the best bet to protect their loved family and friends. They don't want to risk damaging the economy but they also don't want to risk ruining the planet that their kids will grow up in. How on earth can they decide what's best? This book will show how you don't need to be an expert to make your own sensible decisions using the sort of ordinary risk assessment techniques that we all use when we cross the road or buy house or car insurance. Craven basically looks at what each side in the debate is claiming and looks at what will happen if they are wrong and then shows what the consequences would be for us all. Instead of trying to work out definitively who is right, which is very difficult as shown by the many complicated books available that try to, Craven clearly shows that asking what happens if one or the other side is wrong gives a very simple, yet brilliant, way of deciding what the best bet is when deciding what to do, or not do, about it. This "risk assessment" method might sound dry and dull but Greg is often very funny and he is a natural communicator (he's a science teacher with the gift of humour). It's rather like Carl Sagan meets Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy! You won't see the chemical explosions special effects or the funny hats featured in the videos but the book has other fun stuff too. Not to mention loads of "Dohhh!! why didn't I (or the government!) think of that?" moments. Greg got to write this book based on the success of the "How It All Ends" videos which were in turn based on his original 10 minute YouTube video "The Most Terrifying Video You'll Ever See". A firestorm of critics descended on that one but Craven didn't give up - he used every helpful or savage critical comment to make his argument stronger. By using the power of the critical Internet crowds he is now pretty sure that EVERY counter-argument has been addressed and answered... This book goes beyond even his original "bulletproof" argument. This just might be the very first time that "crowd sourcing" (A.K.A the wisdom of crowds) has been utilised to this extent to refine and polish an argument. The result has been called brilliant. This is not just another global warming book. This is for everyone. It's funny and entertaining and, above all else, wise - you will say "YES!, why didn't I think of that - that is so obvious now!" as Greg cuts tho