War and Anti-War: Survival at the Dawn of the 21st Century

Here are some notes The same forces transforming our economy and society were about to transform war as well The biggest problem for democracies in relation to the military - Democratic armies cannot win wars without popular support/ consensus, but crises could arise faster than consensus could form. The military had to shift from an orientation toward space to an orientation toward time The shape of tomorrow would be determined by economic, not military, warfare - nations becoming more economically interdependent Knowledge is a factor of production which is versatile and inexhaustible unlike material finite resources therefore it may be used by both sides of the war War success increasingly lies in the capacity for acquiring, generating, distributing, and applying knowledge strategically and operationally Agriculture became the womb of war for two reasons. It enabled communities to produce and store an economic surplus worth fighting over. And it hastened the development of the state. Together these provided the preconditions for what we now call warfare Past armies varied greatly in size, capability, moral, leadership quality and training. Weapons were unstandardized, and fighting was mostly close combat Total war is waged politically, economically, culturally, and propagandistically, and the entire society converted into a single war machine. Total war blurred or completely eliminated the distinction between military and civilian targets Mutually assured destruction Poorly paid draftees armies reduce the incentive for technological substitution If armies consist of more highly paid professionals, robots become a battlefield bargain The spread of chemical, biological, and nuclear arms in the world is also likely to promote robotization by creating battlefields just too toxic for human soldiers. Robotic warriors can be custom designed to perform in just such environments Robots did the work but humans made the decisions Another feature of autonomous robots is speed. They can make decisions at faster than human rates, a key capability as warfare accelerates The problem with remotely controlled robotic weapons is that they depend on vulnerable communications that link humans to them. If communication breaks down, disrupted, sabotaged or manipulated by the enemy, the robot becomes useless or potentially self destructive. If the ability to sense data, interpret it, and make decisions is embedded in the weapon itself, the communication links are internalized and more secure *The implementation of total automation in warfare by means of robotization changes the relationship among the parts of the war machine specifically among the public and the state. Robotization removes the human aspect of war, the draftees and therefore reduces public patriotism and therefore support for the warfare. With zero cost in human life 2 scenarios may occur - 1 lost of public concern regarding any battle or war waged, 2 increase in unopposed criticism by the p

Over the years I have read several of Toffler's excellent books.He has a marvelous talent to put logical thinking to work and reveal what is really happening right before our eyes;and most of all,explain it.It seems that it is a case of that old adage "can't see the woods for the trees."Any reader of Toffler is well aware of the First,Second and Third waves;and what he does in this book is to show how war is affected by the Third wave principles of change. As one reads this book,the reader should keep in mind that it was published in 1993- that's 13 years ago,and much of the thoughts and research probably took place sometime before that.It is a credit to Toffler's skill to read the book now and to see how dead on the mark he is. The big thing that comes out in this book is that the whole world has not gone through these three waves;in fact some countries have barely entered into the first wave.All countries must try to get along regardless which wave they are in.Also some countries are operating in the first wave in some things,others in the second wave and even in the third wave in others.This is summed up in what Toffler describes as "A World Trisected." When war is involved ,it is a matter of life and death,and if one does not adapt they will end up on the scrapheap of history. This book opens ones eyes to so many things that are going on today.It is little wonder that the United Nations,which was formed during the second wave and continues to operate that way;that it has essentially been useless in dealing with terrorism around the world.One should also keep in mind that our governments and political systems along with our legal,criminal and justice systems were also developed for the second wave and continue to dwell there. "You may not be interested in war,but war is interested in you." -Trotsky

everything in this book is here now, as well as some newer insidious developments. people no longer live private lives, what with a cell phone being able to track you around and all your conversations being heard and recorded, even if the phone is switched off. smart bombs, HAARP and atmospheric manipulation, every home infiltrated with myriad electromagnetic fields that disrupt human biological functions. Soon everyone in the world will have some sort of ID card or implant, that will tell any scanner who you are, and include your banking and credit data, personal data, nationality, and convictions-- all accessed by some sort of infrared device. the infrared devices now in use can tell how much paper money you have in your wallet, purse, or in the house of business, eventhough the scanner is inside of some car passing by your house on the street. No one is hidden anymore, video cameras scan just about any place, street, address, roadway, business, interior, exterior and can tell who goes where and what they do. Computer programs unknowingly downloaded onto your hard drive can realy just about anything about you and your habits that you would have just as sonn kept hidden. This books gets you into the mindset, if you are so naive to think none of this is real, but only sci fi...NOT!

I have a certain measure of skepticism concerning the genre that has been called "futurist" or "future studies" because, as is well known, many of the predictions of futurists have been dead wrong. But some futurists are better than others; and it is emminetly rational to try to understand where we are headed and plan for it. The sub-title of this book is : Survival At The Dawn of the 21st Century. Considering that the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 has launched, in a certain sense, the 21st Century, it seems to be an appropriate time to evalute a book by a prominent futurist, written in the early 90s, on war and peace in the 21st Century. This book is rooted in the Tofflerian concepts of the "First Wave," "Second Wave," and the "Third Wave." The First Wave Civilzation is agrarian. The Second Wave Civilization is industrial; the Third Wave civilization in informational. War and peace should be understood in the context of the Third Wave. Predictions: Nation-states will no longer have the sole monopoly on force. New, sophisticated techonolgy will be used. The threat of bio-terrorism. Information will be very important, both in war, and in preventing war. The use of psychological methods in war. Countries should, and will, share knowledge and expertise. Reality: In Afghanistan, the United States attacked Taliban and Al-Qaida bases (Al-Qaida, an international terrorist organization). Satellites and precision bombing were used. There is a fear of a biological counter attack in the United States. There is now an effort to strenghthen our security and intelligence agencies in order to prevent further attack. In the war in Afghanistan, not only bombs were dropped, but also food for the civilians and propaganda pamphelts. In the war on terrorism, the US is assisting the former Soviet Republic of Georgia with weapons and advice. There are some things that turned out differently. For example, some Second and even First Wave methods of war were used. The calvary, 19th century war institution, used in the 21st Century! Another point is the increasing role of civilians in war. True, civilians have not always been passive. In World War II, a national magazine encouraged its readers to come up with ideas on how to win World War II. But it seems that civilians will have an increasing more important role in the waging of war and the preservation of peace. Heroic civilians in one of the hi-jacked planes fought back and may have well saved Congress or the the White House from being attacked. People increased their security , after the attack, by using the newer communication technologies like cell phones and the Internet. As to the second half of the book's title "Anti-War", the predictions are not as adequate--though we should not be too hard on Toffler on this point--the prevention of war is not an easy thing. One of Toffler's suggestions is basically of an international organization like the UN having

Published in 1993, the authors published this look into the future of warfare. Building on the paradigm introduced in their earlier books (Future Shock, The Third Wave, and Powershift), the authors argue that as the new "Third Wave" transforms society, so will it transform warfare. Throughout, the authors attempt to show how war has been transformed, and how it will continue to transform in the decades ahead.I picked up this book in reaction to the recent attack on the World Trade Center in New York City. I was hoping that it would give me a better insight into modern military, and what modern warfare would be like. I think that the authors did a great job of showing just how different any present and future wars are likely to be.My one complaint is that the authors focused almost exclusively on the militaries of the advanced societies. If you want to see how the "new" terrorists are also "Third Wave" organizations, I highly recommend Countering the New Terrorism, by Ian O. Lesser, et al.That said, this is a fascinating book, with a thought-provoking message. I highly recommend you read it.