The World in 2020: Power, Culture and Prosperity

I enjoyed this book by Mr. Hamish McRae very much. He has a sharp mind and is to the point. This 1994 book is dated but still has some very interesting insights into the future. Prosperity? Mr. McRae assumes that there might be some! Mr. McRae is sometimes braver than most in saying some obvious truths that most writers are too politically correct to touch. There has been many changes in the world from 1994. Mr. McRae should up-date this good work. I don't see things turning out well for the United States. The world has and will become more tribal. Peak Oil and declining global water tables, declining grain production will bring out the worse in all of us. He has faith in the growing trend in "the global market economy." This might be true in 1994, but now in 2008 with declining global natural resources, the world is like a sow with 10 nipples and 14 piglets. Some will get left out and there will be a violent struggle for any titty. I found the book interesting and useful but you should keep in mind the book is middle-of-the-road conservative. Buy the book used, it's still worth the money. Regards, Keith Renick, Peachtree City, Ga.

Hamish McRae claims the impetus for writing this book stemmed from a question asked while presenting at a conference in Oxford in 1991. The question poised was "What good books are available on the future developments in international finance?" McRae's inability to answer this question inspired him to write the book, "The World in 2020."His book is divided into three parts. The first part, "Where the World Stands Now" provides answer to issues such as; what makes countries grow, the importance of growth, how does growth happen, the new motors of growth, and measuring efficiency. McRae also provides an in-depth look at North America: The Giant Retreat, Europe: The Babble of Many Tongues and East Asia: The Fragile Boom, as these issues relate to these geographical areas of the world.McRae uses the second part of the book to discuss "The Forces for Change." Besides examining forces already know, McRae explores other factors such as; age and growth, the differences between older and younger societies, the 'haves' and 'have-nots', and other demographic issues. McRae also discusses resources and the environment, trade and finance, technology, and government and society.In conclusion, McRae utilizes the third part of the book to share his vision of "The World in 2020." He sees the United States remaining as the only superpower but with tremendous growth in East Asia and Europe. McRae makes suggestions on which countries may or may not prosper in the years ahead based upon their political, social and environmental conditions and the events in a global market. As a doctoral student at Pepperdine University with interests in education, technology and future trends, I highly recommend this book to all that share these interests. I enjoy Hamish McRae's open, objective and informative view of the future. The book is packed full of many insightful tid-bits of information and avoids making pessimistic or optimistic exaggerations about the future to promote a personal agenda. Read and enjoy, and thank you Hamish McRae!

Hamish McRae, a financial columnist for London's Independent, presents a 26-year forecast of the industrialized nations. Avoiding either the pessimist's or optimist's camps, McRae's vision is based on a reasonable assessment of where the industrialized -- and those nations soon to be industrialized -- are at present, an evaluation of the forces acting on those nations, and where those pressures might reasonably lead. Although the title was originally published in 1994, surprisingly little is noticeably out of date, a tribute to McRae's restraint and the cogency of his thesis: that social responsibility and creativity are the fundamentals of future growth. Nations and their allies who can throttle back on short-term consumption, a form of social responsibility, will enjoy sustainable long-term success. Their less providential counterparts are destined for declining quality of life. The world of 2020 is divided, like Caesar's Gaul, into three parts: North America, East Asia, and Europe. The leading economy will likely be in Asia fueled by a culture of work and thrift and China's emergence as the world's dominant economy. Europe, stimulated by economic cooperation and a culture of thrift, is expected to be the second power, with North America - oddly omitting Mexico as part of the continent - trailing largely due to a spendthrift nature. North America's ace in the economic hole is its creativity with global demand for entertainment and education increasing. While there seems to be little chance, in McRae's opinion, of widespread calamity or global war, the generation leading the world into 2020 may be the last generation to avoid such problems as pressures affecting stability increase.