The Trillion Dollar Meltdown: Easy Money, High Rollers, and the Great Credit Crash

Couldn't have timed it better, Lehman Brothers sunk, Merill Lynch sold, AIG is on the brink of disaster - these are household names for many of us! Charles Morris offers a great primer on the current crisis, and the underlying causes. The book starts off well back, in the early 60's, and walks the reader through the economic downturns, recoveries, and their underlying causes - hinting at the fact that the current crisis is anything but a new occurrence. The author also spends a good amount of time on the financial instruments that have been reinvented many times over in the last decade: CDOs, SIVs, etc. Instead of hiding behind a curtain of mathematical complexity, Charles Morris offers great explanations and the rationale (if you can call it that) that led us to the current crisis. Last few chapters of the book are heavily infused with opinionated policy judgments, but other than that, this is certainly a very timely read.

As a lawyer and former investment banker, Charles Morris can appreciate the power of free-market capitalism to drive economic growth and financial innovation. Now, however, he believes the era of market fundamentalism has come to an end, just as Keynesian interventionism came to an end in the 1970s. He estimates conservatively that the recent writedowns and defaults of residential mortgages, corporate debt, credit card debt, and bonds will be about $1 trillion. But this book was written before even more recent revelations such as the Bear Sterns insolvency. It is now estimated that the bill could be 3 or 4 times as high. Morris gives a brief but excellent history of events that led up to the current credit crunch that is paralyzing global financial markets. Disasters have many fathers, but Morris lays much of the blame on bond rating agencies, financial insurance companies and the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan. After 9/11 the Federal Reserve lowered the interest rates below the rate of inflation, essentially giving banks free money. Banks then lent money for fees up front and then repackaged the loans - turned them into securitized debt - and sold them to investors. It was basically cost free and risk free, so they lent money as if there was no tomorrow. These securitized debts or CDOs (collaterilized debt obligations) were sold and resold throughout the global financial system and no longer did anyone know how to measure their value or their risk. Add to this the fact that homeowners were using the rising equity of their homes as atms and pumping another $4 trillion into the economy. Also add to the mix $700 billion annual trade deficit that indicates that much more consumption over production. The party was really in full swing. But the party couldn't last forever. The bubble started to deflate last summer when housing prices began to fall and homeowners began to default on their mortgages. The government initially thought it was just a typical market adjustment, but with the imminent collapse of Bear Stearns they finally took decisive action. Bear Stearns was holding $46 billion worth of securitized mortgages with an estimated value of 30 cents on the dollar. As the crisis has been unfolding, it has been estimated that the federal government has authorized about $1 trillion in new lending through agencies such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Federal Housing Finance Board, and the Federal Reserve. This was done solely to keep the economy afloat. But no one knows yet where this will end. Massive infusions of money will lead to a weaker dollar, as we have already seen. A weaker dollar against the background of rising oil and food prices tells us the crisis is far from over. Morris does not tell us exactly how we will get out of this mess, but he is sure that in the end a new system of financial regulation will be in place.

In this excellent, highly readable book, Charles R. Morris combines legal and financial experience with literary craft. No ideologue, no partisan and certainly no salesman, Morris traces the roots of the 2007-2008 mortgage securities crisis to its distant origins in the 1970s. He argues that policy missteps under the Nixon, Ford and Carter administrations, when Arthur Burns chaired the Federal Reserve, led to dollar debasement. He contends that the decline of America's currency and its business sector at that time led in turn to the Reagan administration's zeal for deregulation and Chicago-school economics. He details his belief that Alan Greenspan's policies took America from a relatively healthy financial status to a position perhaps as dire as in the late 1970s. Morris also reveals the privileges enjoyed by an out-of-control financial services system. getAbstract found this to be a trenchant and provocative read.

This is a great book for those of you like me who are not in the financial services industry but who want to understand why our economy is melting down as we speak. It will also help you understand why this upcoming election is so important: The author describes the seismic ideological shifts over the last 40 years, from the Liberal/Keynsian era that imploded in the late 70s, to the current dying embers of the Chicago-School free market ideology that has held sway from Reagan up to the present moment. The author believes it is time once again for the pendulum to swing in the direction of more activist, socially conscious government intervention. He is not a liberal ideologue but a former banker who comes to his conclusions based on objectivity, knowledge, and lucid thought. The integrity of his thinking shines through every page. This is not always an easy book to read; due to the subject matter it is rife with all sorts of financial industry acronyms and terms like "tranch" and "quant" and "put", but don't let that throw you. Just keep reading with the big picture in mind and it will all come together in the end. It's well worth the effort!

I am learning a lot reading this, even though I've followed the economy for years. The preface summarizes the situation and outlines the book, but is maybe slightly dense and technical for the average person. But the first chapter is great for giving perspective on how the US economy has evolved, especially the troubles of the stagflation period and what caused that. The book goes up to November 2007, with a clear understanding that the credit bubble was going to have to unwind, and it was either going to cost $1 trillion, or, if the government tried to paper it over, a lot more.