The Soviet Estimate: U.S. Intelligence Analysis & Russian Military Strength

Book Reviews United Press International July 27, 1982 Jack Redden The Soviet Estimate: U.S. intelligence analysis and Russian military strength, by John Prados (Dial Press, $17.95) John Prados could not have picked a better time for his book, ''The Soviet Estimate.'' The Reagan adminstration has been busy telling of the Soviet threat ever since taking office. Each new adminstration goes through the rhetoric and then reality of deciding a military policy, but this one came in with claims of American weakness reminiscent of John Kennedy's charges of a ''missile gap.'' The history of U.S. estimates of Soviet strength that Prados relates is not likely to raise optimism in the nation. But more alarming than mistakes in estimates, which obviously so far haven't been fatal, is the political maneuvering with the figures by both elected officials and the military-intelligence establishments. For all the criticism of the CIA, history seems to show less danger of off-base figures from that body, involved just in spying, than from branches of the military with vested interests in the perceived Soviet threat. The record consistently shows high estimates from the air force for the Soviet airborne threat -- backing up its demands for larger budget allocations to counter the supposed danger. Despite skepticism based on past over-estimates, Prados does agree with the view that both the United States and the Soviet Union are nearing the point of being able to destroy each other's land-based missiles. Whether or not there really will be a ''window-of-vulnerability'' in the next few years, he correctly points out that the government's estimates of Soviet power and intentions will become ever more important during this period as the concern over a pre-emptive strike deepens. -- Red Scares;The Soviet Estimate: U,S, Intelligence Analysis and Russian Military Strength. By John Prados Newsweek July 12, 1982, BOOKS; Pg. 74A LENNY GLYNN Silencer pistols and sang-froid are the staples of spy novels, but satellite photos and yellowed clippings from foreign technical journals have more to do with the most crucial role of intelligence agencies: weighing the military capacities and the intentions of a nation's adversaries. In "The Soviet Estimate," John Prados fills a virtual information vacuum on how well America's spies have assessed Soviet power and prospects since World War II. It is a tale more reminiscent of Kafka than le Carre--duels are waged with memos in Washington, not stilettos in Budapest. From the infancy of atomic weapons to current disputes about verifying nuclear-arms treaties, Prados surveys a series of controversies within the U.S. intelligence community that have shaped both American perceptions and arms budgets. He traces an oscillating pattern of smug underestimates followed by overblown discoveries of new Soviet "threats." The Kremlin's development of nuclear weapons, for example, came years earlier than Western experts predicted in th