The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000

Having reread Kennedy's book after 20 years, I'll have to agree with many of the reviewers here regarding bulk of the work - it's an exceptional tour of world-power history over the last 500 years, not an introductory text by any reckoning - and disagree with them on the last chapters - they should be read, in context, for what they were at the time of the writing which is to say, exceptionally perceptive. To say that it needs updating is akin to saying that a fine 1987 automobile would have to be updated to reflect the latest in that technology in today's economy - well duh? This is a book that should be read by anyone who wants to understand the current state of affairs today. While others fault him for not seeing the fall of the USSR, he shares that fault with almost every other analyst of that period including the best in our CIA. In fact, Kennedy does a superlative job of laying out the dozen-odd obstacles faced by the USSR in the late '80s - probably better than anyone else at the time - and paints a dire picture of it's difficulties to come in the next decades. He all but predicts it's downfall and only overestimates a single factor - the will of Moscow, under Gorbachev, to maintain that union by force which Kennedy presumed, from all evidence of Russian history, to be a given - it wasn't. He clearly saw and spells out why the USSR could not continue on the path it was on without suffering severe declines in economic, social and military terms given the perceived threats around it, its congenital paranoia about such things, and increasing difficulties with the ethnic minorities within the union. It is interesting today to review the lack of EU resolve in Bosnia and reasons for that hesitancy and, currently, Putin's maneuvering to preserve what remains and restore Russia's prestige while dealing fretfully with the same demons that Kennedy artfully describes (China and east-Asia, India, Muslim cultures to the south, Germany and the EU to the west, Japan, and the U.S. global military power). On another point, he overestimated Japan's ability to deal with its prosperity and the financial world it was entering, for the first time, unaware of the pitfalls that attend the uncoupling of currency from goods and services - which P.K. incisively pointed out. Sound familiar? We were still ignoring the consequences of that decoupling only two years ago and, I'd venture to guess, a majority of educated Americans still don't understand it, its consequences, and its remediation. Also of note was Kennedy's warning about continuing to provide military cover, with American taxpayers bearing the cost, for nations (Japan, So. Korea and Taiwan) and trading blocks (the EEC - EU) that had already equaled or exceeded the U.S. in per-capita income and productivity at the time without, at least, cost sharing. The effects of diverting investment capital at home to military while allowing those others to invest their capital in trade industries has all but destroy

Kennedy's "Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" is a classic that should rank with the great books and great ideas of the 20th century. Anyone who wants to understand what has happened in history, and what will most likely happen, should read this book. Great theories and great books are often so because they state, in a convincing way obvious facts that we want to ignore because they are inconvenient or unflattering. Sigmund Freud's Psychopathology of everyday life and "Interpretation of Dreams" shocked the Victorian world by pointing out that a lot of human behavior is about sex. Darwin's "Origin of Species" and "Descent of Man" was a shocker because it pointed out that we are animals, descended from animals. Karl Marx's contribution, shorn of polemics, was to point out the importance of economics in history and ideology. Kennedy amasses considerable evidence for the unattractive theory that wars are won by economic might (and not because providence is on the side of the "good guys"), that all empires are mortal, and that empires can kill themselves by economic over-extension. He correctly predicted the economic problems of the Soviet Union, before it was obvious to all, and he predicted the over extension and deficit spending that would could the lot of the US in the future - and are the lot of the US in Iraq. This is not a popular thesis. Every historian from Thucydides, and Polybius to Gibbon, Toynbee and Spengler has understood that empires are "mortal." Yet every empire and every citizen of every empire insisted that their empire was the "exception" that could never be challenged and never fail. That is what makes many uncomfortable about this book, but it cannot be ignored. It is really beside the point to say that it was written nearly two decades ago and is therefore "out of date." "The Origin of Species" was written nearly 150 years ago and is certainly "out of date" and "mistaken" in many details, but it is absurd to claim it should not be read for that reason. When Kennedy describes the dilemma faced by Spain in maintaining its costly presence in Flanders, he is describing essentially the same problems and considerations that face the USA in deciding whether to continue the war in Iraq. Even if you think the US is exempt from the laws of history for some reason, you cannot ignore this book.

Professor Kennedy has prepared a well written historical text covering the economic change and military conflict of the Great Powers of the world from 1500 A.D. to 2000 A.D.. The only part of the text which requires modification is the prognostication of the future of the United States and other "great" world powers as stated in the last one-hundred pages of the book. Make no mistake about it though, this book is a very good recount of pre-1980 history and should be read, reviewed and analyzed under that premise. For example: "Although the United States is at present still in a class of its own economically and perhaps even militarily, it cannot avoid confronting the two great tests which challenge the longevity of every major power that occupies the 'number one' position in world affairs: whether, in the military/strategical realm, it can preserve a reasonable balance between the nation's perceived defense requirements and the means it possesses to maintain those commitments." This book represents a groundbreaking treatise of historical accuracy and is a must have for any student of history.

Professor Kennedy's book provides an very good account of the rise of Western military, economic, and political supremacy since the early 1500s, and shows how the all the "Great Powers" have, in some form or another, suffered from the same fate. He clearly illustrates how 'imperial overstretch' has historically affected a nation's or an empire's capacity to maintain its control over large territories and overseas possession, and his book shows how economic and industrial might are positively correlated with military strenght and political influence. His comparison between Britain's imperial decline and the subsequent gradual decline experienced by the United States in both the military and economic arenas, should serve as a clear warning to our leaders and policymakers in Washington and Corporate America. As American economic and military supremacy becomes increasingly challenged in various regions of the world, and its manufacturing base continues to erode, thus limiting its capacity to wage a massive war in an industrial scale (as in WWII) to defend its vital interests; Prof. Kennedy's revelations in "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" become more and more relevant.