The Power of Early Speed

Horseplayers have always known that, all things being equal, the horse that takes the early lead has the best chance to win the race. In "The Power of Early Speed," veteran handicapper and columnist Steve Klein shares a formula for identifying horses most likely to take the lead at the first call. Klein also explains how to use the formula to uncover horses who are good bets to win on the front end at long odds, taking into account field size, jockey and trainer tendencies, track biases and other factors. "The Power of Early Speed" is an excellent analysis of the inherent advantage of early speed (calculated by Klein using a massive sample of horses and races) and the best ways to exploit that advantage. [...]

In the month and a half since I read my copy of The Power of Early Speed, I've gone on the best run of my handicapping life-- nearly +$3000 on $5 win and $2 exacta wagers. I'm regularly identifying 8-1 and higher longshots that my normal handicapping would have ignored. The basic principle is this: Horses on the lead at the first call of dirt races win roughly 20% of the time yet yield a positive return on investment. This holds true across all class levels and at every track in North America, based on a 9 year, 200K race sample. Klein shows you how to identify horses likely to take the lead with a Speed Point formula that's useful, but that isn't necessary to calculate all the time, if you keep in mind running position at the first call, field size (it's more impressive when you make the lead or are close to the pace in a larger field) and race distance (horses entered today in longer races have a greater chance of making the lead). In addition, Klein points you towards trainers whose horses tend to go to the front more often-- especially good when you're in a 1st off claim or 1st with trainer situation. He also details which riders like to gun from the gate at each track-- and sometimes certain riders gun at one track while holding back at others. For instance, Edgar Prado is much more likely to head for the front at Awueduct while being more patient at Belmont. Details like that give you a great edge at the windows.

Steve Klein authored a good one. He is a believer in early speed and now I am, too! His work, The Power of Early Speed, is one you should have in your library. It is appropriate for both the casual weekend player and for the more ambitious handicapper who plays one or more tracks each day. The book starts with the history behind his idea to write a book-- Steve had early success with early speed while growing up in California. The history moves to the present: Steve works for the Daily Racing Form and covers Kentucky racing. He pondered whether early speed was something that was universal. He decided to use the vast DRF database and used 1,671,627 horses to find out. I'll ruin the ending of the story for you -- it does! He includes charts that show the profitability of early speed at the different odds levels and at different track conditions. Same with the different distances carded by each track. He includes additional data of track specific trainer and jockeys success vs. early speed. These charts alone could be used favorably by the casual player. Finding and recorded early speed track biases and how to handicap early speed via Klein speed points rounds out the volume. The lone complaint I have is that the font size should be larger. It was difficult for me to read the charts and past performances. I ended up using a magnifying glass. I recommend that when the second printing takes place that the past performances and charts be enlarged. I've been playing and reading handicapping books for close to 50 years. Steve's book is one I strongly recommend. It has helped my game; it will help yours.

The Klein speed points are excellent in showing which horses will have the early lead.I have only used it one day at the track, and the first time I used it in an exacta, the 3 horses I had selected, came in 1-2-3. The charts are great in showing at what tracks, distances,to use it for. I feel that it will help me alot in making me a better handicapper.

A monumental study illustrating the importance of early speed in the handicapping of Thoroughbred Horse Racing in North America. Using a computer analysis of over 1.6 million thoroughbreds involving the period of January 1996 through December of 2004 author Steve Klein presents a crucial part of the handicapping picture. For me, the book provided a reawakening and clearer focus of some of my handicapping skills that had become underused over the course of time. Steve's work dwarfs another previous computer study "Winning at the Races", by William Quirin, Ph.D., William and Morrow, 1979. Steve's "Power of Early Speed is a must read for any serious horse bettor. I highly recommend it with 5 Stars.