The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2005-2009

I found this book to be a very interesting read. At first blush, one could be scared to death about the future of our economy. But put in perspective, knowing that no one knows what the future holds, I did glean a lot of useful information that I have put into practice. I have also learned a lot from "Googling" some of the references in the book. Clearly the Baby Boomers have and will continue to shape our economy for many years to come. Don't be one who follows the herd. Work hard to get out in front and lead the herd.

If you have been reading Harry S. Dent, Jr., you know that he has a real knack for taking demographic trends and turning them into investment insights. The U.S. stock, bond and real estate markets are strongly influenced by how many people are at what ages. That's because there are predictable spending levels and types of spending for each age group. For instance, young people are more likely to rent than to own and older people are more likely to buy a retirement home than a primary home. In The Next Great Bubble Boom, Mr. Dent argues persuasively that we are about to see the best markets for buying and selling stocks and residential real estate for the next several decades . . . to be followed by a very poor period of economic performance that will last for many years beginning in 2010. His demographic argument is buttressed by a look at technology cycles, historical economic and financial cycles, and various social trends. His demographic information on life cycle spending is much more developed here than in earlier books. As far as it goes, this book is a wonderful resource that anyone can use to make more money by shifting their investment focus for the next five years. I strongly recommend that you read and apply this book! What are the book's weaknesses? There are several. 1. He is overly impressed with back testing of various strategies. You will read more pages than you want to see how one focus versus another would have fared in the past. But the future is always at least a little bit different. For instance, the book doesn't look into the worldwide commodity boom and the rapidly deflating dollar . . . both of which will impact his scenarios. 2. He believes in risk adjusted returns rather than raw returns. But you cannot spend risk adjusted returns. Most people measure their wealth in the value of what they own. That often means that higher risk investments do better in boom times. 3. He doesn't think that politics matters very much, but shifts in tax policy can have a large impact on the values of various classes of assets . . . and the recent election suggests that tax policy is about to change. Stay tuned. 4. He likes the U.S. so much that he doesn't really consider the alternative investments to be very attractive, because of his sense of risk adjusted returns. For instance, even though Latin America looks great from the perspective of his tools, he says don't invest there because governments have been volatile in the past. I suspect that U.S. investments will do worse in dollar terms than investments in developing countries that export raw materials and have favorable demographics.

Harry Dent has made his reputation writing about the economic effects of the Baby Boom generation. Everything this generation of 73 million people has touched, has been changed. As this group has grown up, had children and now, begin to retire, they have changed the market conditions, products, and services for their generation. Their buying, consumption,and investing habits are fairly predictable. By analyzing their tastes, needs, and preferences and making some simple economic assumptions, we can see with a high degree of predictablility, certain market patterns emerge. Dent predicts that between 2005 and 2009, we will see: Dow Jones of 30,000 - 40,000 NASDAQ - 12,000 - 15,000 Inflation - 3% or less Interest Rates: lower than current levels Strong economic growth Investment Sectors: Financial Services, Health Care, Technology, selected interational markets Strong growth in certain real estate markets Whether you agree with a DJIA of 30,000 or not, this work is persuasive, thought-provoking, and compelling. If Harry is right, we are about to see the greatest leg of a roaring bull market our generation has seen. HS Dent's work is essential for every investor.

Harry Dent has a better record of forecasting than I do, still! He sees five reasons the economy is going to sore from 2005-2009: The Third and Final Bubble of the Recent Economic Boom. The "Decade Hangover Cycle." The Laatest Technology Revolution is Not Over. 80-Year Technology Cycle. The Baby Boomers Last Hurrah. OK. BUT! Oil is at $50 a gallon, the demand for fuel from China and India is growing rapidly and we are not finding less than we are removing from the ground. What does $100 a barrel oil do to his forecast? The war between the muslim culture and ours seems to just be beginning. Suppose this turns really nasty, atomic or biological? We certainly have the feeling that there are people out there who would be willing to use them. His book is fascinating, and you need to read it before you can reject it. But after you read it, do some thinking.

Mr. Dent has done another outstanding job with this newest book. The Dow channel lies between 20,000 on the low side and 40,000 on the high side in 2009 or 2010. The book is filled (like the other ones) with some very intriguing information. A person can't walk away from this book with an answer of why the forecasted scenarios couldn't happen. Many people are arriving at the year 2010 as a potential dramatic change in the economy. This list of people would include Alan Greenspan (from his testimony on 6/15/2004). Furthermore, past performance is no indication of future performance, but his track record has been pretty amazing. This is a must read for anyone who wants to understand in plain English how the economy works. Granted this is a theory, but where have all the other market predictors gone? A person can take his first book "The Great Boom Ahead" written in 1993 and it reads like it was written yesterday. It is true, that people in their 40's tend to spend more money than people in their 60's. Take a walk through a person's garage that is age 60-75 and you will find most of the stuff hanging on the walls was purchased before age 50. Go up into the attic and you will find a lot of stuff purchased from age 30-45. A person must walk away with the question: What drives the economy? Is it the government? GDP is composed primarily of consumer spending (about 70%). Buy the book, read it then ask yourself the question: Why would it not happen? Don't get hung up on the day to day minutia sounded off in the media (these are the trees). Stand back and look at the forest (the big picture). After all, don't most people miss the forest for the trees! Harry has given us a view of the forest (the big picture).