The Next 200 Years: A Scenario for America and the World

On page 22 of The Next 200 Years Herman Kahn said: "[We live in] a structural society which emphasizes organizational and professional pluralism in the distribution of power and presstige. Knowledge rather than experience becomes the major asset and there is the increasing problem of 'educated incapacity'. By 'educated incapacity' we mean an acquired or learned inability to understand or see a problem, much less a solution. Increasingly, the more expert, or at least the more educated, a person is, the more likely he is to be affected by this."Remenber this the next time a PhD expounds on global warning.

This is an excellent book on the future for those who want to predict it and for those who are just curious. It was written during a time in which Americans were somewhat gloomy about over-population, depletion of resources, and future wars; and yet it predicted an optimistic scenario which history has proven correct over the last 20 years. Furthermore it gives some insight on how to make sucessful predictions for the long term. There are 18 tables and 11 figures illustrating how we (rich and poor alike) are likely to be better off in the future.