The Nemesis Affair: A Story of the Death of Dinosaurs and the Ways of Science

David Raup is a brilliant writer. Although slanted he does present alternative view points and hypotheses. A very interesting book on extinction theory as well as insight into the scientific process and its flaws.

According to the hypothesis a small companion star to the earth, like a binary, but smaller and more distant (perhaps two light years distant) passes through the Oort belt approximately every 26 thousand years (don't hold your breath), causing some comets to veer from their paths and impact the earth and its neighbors, causing a large scale extinction of species, among whom in the past were the dinosaurs, and giving others, like us and our cousins, a better chance for survival.The author points out that the star, long known as "Nemesis," or the "Dark star", has never been seen--nor, for that matter has the so-called Oort belt. They are both hypothetical, with no evidence of their true existence.The whole idea of why species go extinct, with a life span of from one to ten million years on average, depending on the species involved is a mystery to scientists--much like the mystery of why individuals within a species must necessarily die, perhaps.Although the author defends, as well as finding fault with, scientific method, it sounds much like turf wars between gangs or political parties. And some of their favorite ideas sound, well, less than reasonable shall we say. They seem more impressed with each other's credentials and reputations than the reasonableness of their pet projects. Is a star--even a small one--so hard to see with the optics, radio telescopes, etc., that are available today?Yet, this hypothesis is no more far-fetched than many others, and may well turn out to be true, yet. Mr. David M. Raup is most persuasive in his presentation.There are some good points made herein. For instance the author's point that almost all species that ever existed on the earth have gone extinct--both plant and animal life forms. He also mentions that often they simply change form, from environmental necessity, or gradually spawn new life forms. It would seem inevitable, either gradually or catastrophically for any given species to cease to exist and another to arise. If they died out and were not replaced, soon all life would become extinct, or if they did not necessarily die, then life forms would certainly overwhelm the earth at some point. So, a balance is achieved, which, for whatever reason seems to be the order of things. And the ecologists who continually fret about how the human race is responsible for all of the earth's problems, and want to "save" all its species except their own--(an impossible task, even if they successfully destroyed all of the "evil" human beings, cockroaches would probably survive) would find that all species would continue to die, and others be reborn. An exercise in futility, gone awry.I suspect that, while the sciences are playing their guessing games and one-upsmanship, the earth will continue to revolve around its poles with a jolly little wobble, continue its orbit around the sun, at least until it implodes, or explodes, and the inhabitants, individually and collectively, will continue to be born, and die,

David M. Raup has written an interesting account of the scientic process in The Nemesis Affair (A Story of the Death of Dinosaurs and the Ways of Science). This is a perfect book for the non-specialist as it gives a glimpse into the larger world science inhabits beyond the minutiae of scientific details. This book shows the ways in which the scientific community, the popular press, and the general public all compete and struggle in creating and accepting (or dismissing) new ideas. The belief that dinosaurs died out partially due to a meteor or comet colliding with earth is one such idea and its genesis from a small spark of inspiration into common belief is told in a clear and entertaing fashion. This is a book that is interesting for the scientific idea it is trying to postulate as well as for the way it illuminates the larger world science is trying to inform and shape.

In the June, 1980 edition of Science an article written by four UC Berkeley scientists, led by Walter Alvarez, was published. This article claimed an extraterrestrial cause for the extinction of the dinosaurs and other species 65 million years ago. Reaction from paleontologists and others was immediate and largely negative. They saw it as a splashy, media-darling type of catastrophic explanation anathema to most working scientists. Author David Raup and his colleague Jack Sepkoski were however among those paleontologists (Stephen Jay Gould was another) who liked the idea. Since there are a number of other mass extinctions in the fossil record, they wondered if these events might be connected and how. They began a statistical analysis of the record, and in February, 1984 published a paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences demonstrating a 26-million-year periodicity. This led to the question, why would these extinctions be regular and what caused them? The answer came from astrophysicists who postulated (among other theories) a "Death Star" companion to the sun, dubbed Nemesis. This star would periodically come close to the sun, disturbing the Oort Cloud of comets, sending some of them to rain down on Earth, thus killing substantial amounts of life on earth.It's a great theory and I love it. Unfortunately no one has ever seen this Nemesis star, which is not due to return for another 13 million years or so. In fact no one has seen the Oort Cloud either, although I understand most astrophysicists believe it is there. And of course paleontologists do not like catastrophic explanations for mass extinctions. In fact they hate them for both theoretical and personal reasons.Thus we have the ingredients for an engaging and very human story about how science works and how it doesn't work. In this extremely readable book Raup reveals how scientific ideas develop, how they are rejected and accepted, and how some theories can neither be confirmed nor rejected, and how the scientific community treats such ideas, and how the media is involved. The blurb on the book cover has a quote from James Trefil comparing it as a memoir to The Double Helix, James Watson's personal story of how he and Francis Crick got credit for discovering the structure of the DNA molecule. I agree that this book is as readable as that very involving story, but Raup's book is more on the order of readable journalism, while Watson's book was more like a novel.What is intriguing in both books is the sheer humanity displayed in both a positive and a negative sense. Here we see a kind of knee jerk, turf-protecting rejection of new ideas by the established cadre of scientists, especially in paleontology. In one sense this is understandable. If you work all your life to help build a certain view of the way things are in your chosen field, and along comes an idea that completely overturns your life's work, you are not

The book, though now outdated, presents a wonderful insight into science and how it works. Especially well written, the author clearly explains the interlocking processes and activities that makes science what it is. He also reveals some of the deep biases that often exist among scientists committed to a paradigm. A recommended read for anyone interested in dinosaurs and their demise.