The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Cent

Kunstler's conclusion that we are out on a limb and it is breaking is irrefutable. It's cheap oil and a wanton disregard for the consequences of exceeding the natural carrying capacity of the Earth that has put us here. Like it or not, there are 6.5 billion people on this planet that are dependent on oil to live. When the oil is no longer economically viable only about two billion or so can be supported by oil free agriculture. Maybe less, maybe more. And the world's population won't stop growing for a couple of decades. The ability to feed ourselves with enough left over for people who don't produce food is the basis for civilization. Period. When the oil is gone, where will the food come from and who will grow it? Massive dislocations and starvation are a given. An old Russian proverb goes something like, 'a hungry man is a dangerous thing.' When it takes ten calories of oil to make one calorie of food, what makes up the difference when the oil is gone? I've read the analysis and heard the arguments against biomass, thermal depolymerization, nuclear, etc. It's basic thermodynamics. There's no arguing it. Most of the articles in the popular press are long on praise and short on numbers. They read like descriptions of Pacific islander cargo cults. Oil is amazing and there's no replacing it with anything. If replacements were possible, they'd be here and ready because capitalism never overlooks a chance to make a profit. From my career in engineering I know that every piece has to be in place for the "bird" to get off the ground. A plane with and empty fuel tank sits on the runway. Putting the wrong fuel in the tank just makes it blow up on the runway. There's no shortcut. There's no free lunch. Santa isn't coming to town with coal for all the bad little boys and girls. And we've been very bad. And now we'll pay. However, the news is not all bad. Humans have lived without oil before. When people worked their own land and kept the fruits of their labor, their lot in life gradually improved. We know more than those people did. We understand more about materials and forces and pathogens. This much I knew before reading Kunstler's book. So why did I buy it? This is new territory. No one really knows what will happen. Part of solving the problem is understanding it. I'm looking for ways to hedge my bets. Kunstler's book isn't the last word on the long emergency, but it's a good start. I don't agree with all of his analysis or conclusions. However, I believe that about 80% of what he predicts has a high probability of coming to pass. Everyone's preparation for the long emergency will be different. Those who do nothing will be at the mercy of the elements. The elements don't care if humans live or die. Kunstler's message is too important to ignore. If you don't like Kunstler's wake up call, then stay mesmerized in your McMansion and gloat over your SUV and LCD TV and espresso maker and Jacuzzi and popcorn make

Here is the argument that novelist James Howard Kunstler presents in this most engaging narrative: (1) We have a "one-time endowment of concentrated, stored solar energy"--i.e., oil. (2) At this point in history, give or take a few years, most of that stored solar energy will be gone. ("Peak oil" is upon us.) (3) The unprecedented growth of our society is predicated upon cheap energy and needs a continued supply of it to maintain itself. (4) That growth consists largely of a gigantic highway and road superstructure with massive suburban developments in places that cannot sustain their populations without cheap oil ("nobody walks in L.A.") (5) This land use structure is particularly and exclusively designed for the machines of cheap oil, cars, 18-wheelers, SUVs, etc., which will become too expensive to run as the oil patch rapidly depletes. (6) There is no substitute for oil--not coal, not nuclear power, not solar cells, not wind power, not hydroelectric power, not hydrogen fuel cells, not cold fusion, not corn oil--nothing will be adequate. The idea that human ingenuity will come up some sort of alternative fuel at the price we are paying today is just a pipe dream. (7) Our government has its head in the sand. Kunstler augments his argument with these major points: One, regardless of what energy source we might dream will replace oil, we will have to build the structures--nuclear plants, hydrogen fuel "stations," solar panels the size of New Mexico in the aggregate, massive forests of wind mills, etc.--from an oil platform, at least to begin with. Note that we now use energy from oil to mine coal and to build wind propellers. We use energy from oil to build nuclear reactors. Even solar panels require an investment of energy up front to build the panels. These are massive investments that nobody is really planning on. By the time we get our heads out of our wahzus it will be too late: there won't be enough cheap oil left to build the infrastructures necessary for a transition to alternative energy. Point two is that our gargantuan agribusiness is almost totally dependant on fossil fuels to (1) manufacture fertilizer; (2) to run the machines that plow the fields and harvest the crops; and (3) to fuel the pumps that pump irrigation water up from aquifers or from elsewhere. Point three is that we are also running out of water. Desalination requires massive amounts of energy. The fossil aquifers are rapidly being depleted. Every year water must be pumped from greater depths until the aquifers run dry. Even aquifers that naturally replenish are being drained faster than they can replenish. Point four is global warming. Suffice it to say that some places may go under water and other places may experience unpredictable climate change. The Gulf Stream may cease to run, throwing much of Europe into something close to an ice age while tropical conditions with topical diseases will move north. Point five is that globalization, whic

This is the most sobering book I've ever read. If you want to be confronted with just how bad things could get as humanity consumes the remaining fossil fuel supplies, take a deep breath and read this book. The end of life as we know it may not need to stem from a nuclear war or from a major natural disaster; rather, it could well arise from our love affair with the increasingly popular and ultimately fatal suburban lifestyle that, to be sustained, demands excessive amounts of infrastructure and vast quantities of cheap energy. I lost sleep most nights during the week I read The Long Emergency, and am still troubled by its grim, yet plausible predictions for the future. North Americans are literally sleepwalking into the future. Most citizens are incapable of conceiving how current lifestyles that rely on cheap oil and polluting without bearing all of the consequences could lead to total economic collapse and profound social upheaval within a generation or two. Author James Howard Kunstler predicts that as oil and natural gas become increasingly scarce and expensive, the US will have no choice but to burn through its remaining coal supplies, with great environmental costs. Nuclear power, if jurisdictions can afford to build reactors, may prolong our energy-intensive way of life for a while. Beyond this, we may be limited to burning firewood to stay warm. Kunstler holds out little hope for alternative energy sources replacing our fossil fuels; solar, wind, geothermal and biomass will provide only a fraction of the energy we use today, and hydrogen is faced with so many storage and distribution issues that it will never take hold as all of its enthusiasts would like. Kunstler predicts that material standards of living will go down for virtually everyone in North America. We will, out of necessity, consume less energy, live much more locally, and be heavily tied to the land as we make the procurement of food our single biggest activity. Air travel will all but disappear. Wal-Marts and other large-scale enterprises will collapse. Federal governments may be unable to operate, and may become irrelevant as local stewardship of resources becomes the thing that really matters to most people. Those who are likely to be best off (or should I say the least worst off) will be residents of small towns near to farmland, without a ring of modern subdivisions to separate homes from arable land. Examples of such communities are found in upstate New York, where the author lives. Skills in demand will include animal husbandry and farming, the ability to repair things, and carpenters. People willing to collaborate and build networks locally stand the best chance of getting what they need to survive, if not live a decent, albeit slower, life. I highly recommend this book. Politicians, and those responsible for formulating public policy, would do well to be exposed to this cold, brutal picture of future reality. For what it's worth, Kunstler is not alone with his

I love this book not because I believe all the Kunstler says but because I believe everyone should be listening. Kunstler points out that we have used about half of the oil that exists in the world (a well documented fact) and that the second half is naturally the more difficult to obtain. He admits but does not stress that we have a little more gas and considerably more coal and discusses their uses and problems at length. He discusses multiple scenarios that could cause oil and gas prices to rise more quickly than because of simple scarcity. He points out that in order to switch to alternate sources of energy and transportation, we need oil to run everything in the construction and manufacturing processes of these technologies. And he rightly points out that a "hydrogen economy" is a fallacy - do your research if you don't believe it. Although not thoroughly documented, I believe Kunstler has done plenty of research and most of his discussions are either basic common sense or speculation. He speculates on as many catastrophic scenarios and solutions that he can imagine. I had to constantly remind myself that although all of his doomsday predictions COULD happen, surely only SOME will happen. He is certainly not hoping his predictions will come true, but is wise for considering them. It has been obvious to me for a long time (mainly because my father is a nuclear energy promoter) that our world cannot continue on the path that we have chosen. Nearly our entire country, and to a lesser degree the world, has been running on non-renewable oil, gas and coal products. Imagine how easily it would be to get Vidalia onions (the real ones, not the substitutes from Mexico) in Wisconsin without cheap diesel fuel. We drink wine from France (and everywhere else), eat "sea bass" from Chili (because we have over fished at home), Salmon from Alaska, Oranges from Florida, Lobsters from Maine and everything from California. All of these items are brought to us mostly by overland trucking or air. We purchase more than half of our consumer products from places up to 10,000 miles from home. We drive 10-50 miles one way to work, some in vehicles that get only 10 miles per gallon. We have built highways, houses and malls on some of the most productive farmland in the country. If you don't read this book, please be sure to study the problem however you can. If we prepare to one degree or another, we will lessen the blow. We CANNOT continue to ignore the problem and hope everything will turn out alright. If you get this book and read it, please share it with others. Another book that I plan to read by Kunstler is "The Geography of Nowhere." I also plan to read other books about "end of oil" as well as learning to live without it.

I have been following Jim Kunstler's work for about a year, and in my opinion he--and others--are providing an important national service by attempting to warn us of the consequences of Peak Oil. Mr. Kunstler's most recent book, "The Long Emergency," is an excellent general overview of the topic, plus some addtional information on other threats to the world in the 21st Century. Believe it or not, Mr. Kunstler is actually not propounding the most pessimistic scenario for a post-Peak Oil world. He is trying to warn those who will listen to start preparing for a radically different world in the years ahead. In my opinion, everyone would be well advised to read this book, as well as some of the other recent books regarding Peak Oil.