The Evolution of Civilizations: An Introduction to Historical Analysis

This is a history book like no others. The author developed a detailed model of civilization life cycle analysis. According to him, civilizations pass through 7 predictable stages. Typically the 7th and last stage of one civilization is the first stage of another one that is succeeding the first dying civilization. Using his model, he analyzes in detail the life cycle of several major civilizations, including: the Mesopotamian, Minoan, Classical, Russian, and Western.Reading this book almost feels like uncovering a manuscript of secret knowledge. Although I have read quite a bit on this subject, other historians and authors rarely refer to Quigley. Yet, I feel that he is the giant within his field of historical analysis. And, that his model could serve well in better understanding current affairs.

This is a fascinating book and definitely worth the time and money. In the beginning of the book, Quigley makes the case for the introduction of the scientific method to the social sciences. As a matter of fact, the first 170 pages of the book lays the rationale behind and need for analytical tools to study history. He states that the alternative would be just the presentation of facts with no explanation for what is actually happening. One needs to know what is happening to be able to determine which facts to present, which requires analytical tools. The first 170 pages also deal with distinctions between societies and civilizations, as well as between parasitic and productive societies. He defines civilizations as producing societies with an instrument of expansion He then states that civilizations proceed through the following stages:1. Mixture - different societies come into contact and produce a society with an outlook different from any of the parts.2. Gestation - the period of time between the mixing of the different societies and the expansion of the civilization.3. Expansion - the surplus generated by the society is invested in activities that benefit the civilization. This can include an increase in knowledge, increase in area, technological advancements that increase efficiency, etc. Civilizations have different instruments of expansion. He calls a social organization or unit an instrument if it meets social needs.4. Age of Conflict - The rate of increase using the social instrument slows down which brings interesting times. The instrument can be reformed or a new instrument consistent with the civilization's outlook can circumvent the old instrument. If reform is achieved, a new age of expansion begins. If the vested interests of the previous instument of expansion increasingly consume resources while serving no social needs, Quigley says that the instrument has then become an institution. Expansion can continue, but it is at the expense of neighbors, which leads to imperialist wars. When the vested interests have crushed all internal opposition, the next stage appears.5. Universal Empire - typically a state or politcal unit on the peripheral of the civilization gains power over the whole civilization. The illusion of a golden age appears. The social organization remains stagnant.6. Decay - lack of belief in the civilization's outlook or inability to meet needs of the people leads to people opting out of the system.7. Invasion - external forces disrupt the civilization's social organization and it is unable or unwilling to defend itself. That spells the end of the civilization. The civilizations that he analyzes are the following: Mesopotamian, Caananite and Minoan, Classical, and Western. His examples are excellent as is his analysis. I particularly liked his example of the the Pythagorian rationalists love for rationality went beyond their love for the truth, as a disciple of Pythagoras proved the irra

This is a striking book. When one is past the formative years, it rarely happens that a single book can substantially change one's view of the world. For me the "Evolution of Civilizations" influenced my understanding of history more than anything I've read in many years.The most important author's contribution to historical analysis is identification of the growth mechanism - "instrument of expansion", which can be quite different in different civilizations. It must include two necessary conditions - generation of surplus output, and its investment in productive economic activities. Later, this "instrument of expansion" becomes institutionalized, when surplus is spent on maintenance of status quo of ruling elites and various vested interests, and a society enters "Age of Conflict". One of the distinctions, which Quigley attributes uniquely to the Western civilization, is that it passed through the "Age of Expansion" and reached the "Age of Conflict" three times in its history. First - during Middle Ages (he specifically puts dates 970-1270) with the feudalism as an instrument of expansion, which became institutionalized as chivalry and municipal mercantilism. The second period is the Renaissance era (1440-1630), with the commercial capitalism as instrument of expansion, which ended in the "Age of conflict" of the brutal Thirty Years War, absolutism, and state mercantilism of the emerging nation-states. The third "Age of Expansion" is associated with the Industrial Revolution, beginning in the second half of the 18-th century. It had the industrial capitalism as an instrument of expansion, which became institutionalized in the monopolistic capitalism and imperialism.Quigley puts the end of the third "Age of Expansion" specifically in 1929, with the Wall Street crash and the beginning of the Great Depression. This is an americentric view; in fact the process of institutionalization and monopolistic excesses can be traced to late 19-th century, and by early 20-th century they were plainly evident. Western economies still expanded, but financial crashes, increasing in frequency and magnitude, underlined new fragility due to the exhaustion of the expansionary mechanism. In this sense the WWI was a typical "Age of Conflict" war, similar to the Hundred Years War and the Thirty Years War of the previous "Ages of Conflict" in Europe - not a clash of civilizations, or the conflict between the old and the new. Instead it was pointless, horrible slaughter underlying the conflict between vested interests of various elites and countries belonging to one civilization, and largely devoid of irreconcilable ideological differences.Yet, contrary to the author, it is unlikely that the Western civilization is unique in this sense. The ascendance of every civilization includes several distinct stages. In fact it is more historically consistent to talk about the probability of the civilization's survival after a period of crisis, brought by institutionalization of

I read this book two years ago, but would like to re-read it again, because it was such a joy to read. I regard Professor Quigley as one of the best thinkers of the 20th century, comparable to only few. This brilliant book is about rise and fall of different civilizations. He is arguing that there are certain commonalties and similar stages in development of every civilization, including inevitable decline. He is an archetypal strategic thinker. But he is a level above of the majority of petty-minded so-called "geo-political" thinkers and strategists. His approach to history is dialectical, but much better grounded in human nature and more scientific than works of Karl Marx. He is not sharing Marx's primitive economic determinism. He uses a simple language, but goes deep. He is knowledgeable, wise, and entertaining. A must read to everyone interested in history, military strategic theories and thought-provoking read.

Well, I can't claim to have hobnobbed with the President recently (nor would I care to do so), but I too found this book to be fascinating reading.The great value of this work is that it goes beyond the mere "what happeneds" and "who did whats." Quigley asks the much more important and valuable question: "how." How do new civilizations come into being? How do they change? How do they die? (And the unspoken echo: What will happen to our own civilization?)Because he was trained as a scientist, Quigley proceeds to develop a methodological basis for answering that question of "how." He then demonstrates the soundness of that method by examining the great civilizations of history, pointing out not just the forms they took but _how_ they came to take those particular forms.That makes this book sound pretty dry. It's not. One of the charms of Quigley's writing is his obvious impatience with what he considered to be "wrong" ideas. At some points, he's downright grumpy. Yet he never gives the impression of disagreeing from personal reasons; instead, every one of his views that he asserts as likely true is shown to be supported by the available evidence. It's actually great fun trying to guess what respected belief he'll casually demolish next. (Though it's a bit unsettling when its one's own ox being gored, as Quigley didn't play favorites. Getting the most out of this book will call for real objectivity.)To be more specific about this work, it's one that should appeal to anyone who is more concerned with understanding systems as a whole than with how to win some short-term game or just memorize names and dates. Quigley treats history as a science: he gathers historical information, proposes a testable hypothesis about how civilizations evolve into their particular forms, and then tests this hypothesis by checking it against real civilizations. As fascinating as the details of this "seven stages of a civilization's life" model are (and his study of Western civilization is both stimulating and sobering), the real value is Quigley's insistence on treating the study of history as a science. That's the good habit Quigley tries to inculcate in the reader. It's why the subtitle of this work is "An Introduction to Historical Analysis."Those looking to understand civilizations from a systems analysis perspective (what James Blish in his "Cities in Flight" stories called "cultural morphology") will find this book a gold mine of sound thinking, good information, startling insights, and inspirational ideas.Footnote: Some of Quigley's other works deal with shadowy global conspiracies and the like. This work has nothing to do with the CFR, Trilateral Commission, black helicopters, or other such concerns. It's about the evolution of civilizations.