The Coming Internet Depression Why the High-Tech Boom Will Go Bust, Why the Crash Will Be Worse Than You Think, and How to Prosper Afterwards

Mandel called it before it happened.... He recognized the patterns in psychographics, world economics, technology, and the road ahead. He shows that the paradigms of the technology driven society we hastily built will need to radically change if we are to continue growing. As we are all painfully aware, we built upon the euphoria of intrinsic technology while the foundation was being eroded by weak (to non-existent) earnings and fundamental business needs. If you want to understand exactly what's going on right now and how to position yourself for the future, you will want to get this book!

Should the title be changed to "The Currant Internet Depression'? It seems likely. Mandel highlights the obvious parallels between the twenties and the nineties, and explains in detail why he expects why he the currant economic protections to ineffective and dealing with the possible collapse of the New Economy. His main thesis is that the currant economists, business leaders and government officials will be as unprepared for the tech collapse as the people of Hoover's time were for the stock crash, and for much the same reasons. Mandel believes the `New Economy' is more important even than New Economy proponents suggest, and that it's collapse will lead a general collapse by a few years. He suggests that it represents an economic shift of the magnitude that took place in the twenties with the emergence of personal credit and the spread of new technologies of the time. He does not claim, as his overconfident knee jerk critics will expect, that the collapse will happen the same way as the Great Depression. Indeed, this is the opposite of his thesis; although he does point out that the conservative economists of the twenties were just as certain that there could never again be a collapse. One ideologue I mentioned the work to dismissed it out of hand because of the SEC and the FDIC, it's this sort of overconfidence that lead to the last collapse and the inability to cope with it when it did occur. Indeed, given Congresses willingness to allow the protections installed in the thirties to lapse (allowing consolidation and cross pollination in the financial/insurance world) perhaps it WILL happen just the way that it did, especially if the knee jerk anti-government lassie fare radicals actually get their way. If anything, Mandel is to optimistic, especially when he suggests that Venture Capitalists are a hardy forward-looking bunch. Mandel's scenario, with tech layoffs leading to a crisis of consumer confidence and subsequent personal bankruptcies and an unwillingness on the part of VC's to indulge in risky spending to jump start the tech sector seems compelling, and not simply because it seems to be happening now. Is the `recession' really a `depression' and will it last as long as Mandel suggests? You can decide for your self, but you ought to read the book, if for no other reason than to understand the underlying weakness of a risk driven economy.

After seeing MJ Mandel again on cnbc tonight, I felt motivated to send a copy of his his book to a friend. I had first read it about 5 months ago, and am increasingly impressed by how it is playing out in real time now. It is clearly written and is a natural follow up read to Dow 64000 ( I wish ), and to 'Irrational Exuberence". The book was apparently written well before the ongoing fall of the nasdaq these past months. He presents concepts on the tech cycle and "new economy" worth considering by all, and appears to correctly emphasize the danger of too slow monitary and fiscal response to the increasing tech downturn ( come on congress and Greenspan ).His discussion of the delay between the nasdaq fall and the economy fall some year or so later appears well thought out.Hopefully the extent of the down turn he contemplates, will prove milder than he fears ;if so good. If not, this book is surely an important read for investors.

Mandel was among the first proponents of the New Economy, predicting the prosperity which has evolved from Internet commerce and high-tech stock investment. Here he predicts the next major economic trend - a downturn which will wreck havoc. He explains why he believes this is imminent, how to tell when it's arrived, and how to survive it and prosper in the recovery which will follow. Food for thought.

I devoured this book in 3 evenings afterwork. I could not put it down. It gives an extremely insightful look at how the New Economy is at risk to new types of failure, that did not effect the Old economy. Whether you agree that this type of economy failure is possible or not it is a must read. You will not be bored.