The Chilling Stars: A New Theory of Climate Change

This book requires an open mind, some critical thinking, and eyes open to new concepts. An old proverb states: all progress stems from unpopular decisions - so if you're an avid believer of Al Gore and the UN's IPCC you're wasting your time. When comparing Svensmark's advanced thinking to Pythagoras discovering a round earth in 500 BC, you will be amazed at how organized and logical his perception of our climate is, similar to Pythagoras actually having accurately computed the earths circumference in 500 BC. Both were unpopular as their work didn't fit into political agendas of their time - however, I commend their persistance in persuing science without an agenda. The book is a fascinating and worthwhile read and is written for a general audience, though parts of it require some pondering to digest the concepts. Svensmark was not entirely alone in his discoveries as previous work has contributed to his; however his work has become a milestone through his own contributions as well as enjoining other evidence into a predictable scientific basis of climate change.

NASA, for one, considers unproven Svensmark's theory that cosmic rays provide seed nuclei for the low-altitude clouds that keep earth's temperature low, thus having much more effect on climate than carbon dioxide. "Speculation," said the agency scientists who recently pronounced the current solar minimum the strongest since the space age began--meaning the solar wind is subsiding and cosmic rays are increasing. Svensmark's and science writer Nigel Calder's book shows the cosmic ray theory has ample evidence to be respectable, and to be a plausible alternative to the U.N.'s contention that industrial and automotive carbon dioxide will make the seas rise, the tropics move north, and should prompt the energy-impoverishment of the developed world. Svensmark's theory invites collaboration from scientists as diverse as particle physicists, astronomers and biologists, and it should interest NASA, as it involves such climate drivers as supernovae and the solar system's passage through the spiral arms of the Milky Way galaxy. But, even as a growing bunch of amateur scientists wonder if the sun's lack of solar-wind-increasing sunspots this year could mean we're headed for global cooling, even a mini Ice Age, Svensmark isn't assuming the leadership of a cosmic ray movement. He says it would be "scientifically rash" to use his theory to offer any firm climate forecast for decades ahead. Which is refreshing difference between him and the carbon dioxide cult.

The theory presented in this book sounds a bit suspect when one first hears it. So the explanation for climate change is cosmic rays from outer space, give me a break. But the climate on planet Earth has been changing for roundly 4 billion years, within quite wide limits. There have been periods when most of the land surface was covered by ice caps, periods when even the polar areas were semi-tropical, and just about every state in between. There must be something big driving the system, the theories based on manmade carbon emissions (a recent phenomenon) do not seem to have much to offer, and the cosmic ray theory starts sounding better when it is broken down step by step. #The starting point is low-lying clouds, which serve to deflect incoming solar energy and thereby cool things down. Caveat: the massive and intensely white ice cap of Antarctica is even more reflective than the clouds, so in that one area (but not Greenland, Siberia, etc.) clouds warm things up. #Water vapor in the atmosphere will produce more clouds if there are nuclei (or specks) in the air to facilitate the process. The formation of nuclei is in turn facilitated by cosmic rays (high energy, charged particles that bombard our solar system from outer space). Hey, remember how energetic atomic particles were detected at one time with cloud chambers that would display vapor trails triggered by their passage. #Cosmic rays originate from the explosion of dying stars; they are not equally spread through the universe nor constant over time. As our sun makes it way around the Milky Way galaxy, the volume of cosmic rays encountered waxes and wanes. The time periods involved are so long (think millions of years), however, that human beings with their limited time span are unlikely to notice. #Affecting the volume of cosmic rays on earth in a much more immediate way is the sun's magnetic field, which deflects many incoming cosmic rays. Fluctuations in this magnetic field go hand and hand with the level of sunspot activity, which over the past several years has declined to practically zero. If the level of sunspot activity remains low, the volume of cosmic rays striking earth will be high and a global cooling trend can be expected. There have been recent signs that a cooling trend is indeed getting started, such as has not been seen since the early 1970s. Is the cosmic ray theory true? I am hardly qualified to make such a judgment, but it does seem that the authors have set forth their evidence in a convincing fashion. There is no apparent reason to believe that the scientists participating this line of inquiry (collectively there are quite a few of them) have any ulterior motive, by the way, such as being "in the pay of the oil companies." Indeed, the authors go out of their way to say that they are not interested in promoting a bonfire of fossil fuels just because the importance of CO2 in the recent warming trend may have been exaggerated. Let the testing of the co

Having read some of the research by Henrick Svensmark's team, I eagerly awaited this book. It explains in terms accessible to the intelligent layman how cosmic rays contribute to low level cloud formation. It expounds a most believable explanation for the current warming trend. I was more than amply rewarded as Mr. Calder's excellent writing takes a complicated subject and patiently explains its most prominent features. After reading his chapter, "Adventures of the cosmic rays," I felt much better informed on this crucial topic. Later he moves through a wealth of observations, interdisciplinary discoveries, and innumerable research studies tying them to temperature effects. Our sun and the Milky Way galaxy have a major impact through cosmic rays on our planet's temperature. Research papers necessarily focus on a specific experiment or data gathering exercise, so this survey book is essential to fit Svensmark's research into the broader picture. It surprised and delighted me by the tremendous variety of interrelationships that have been discovered. These all relate to the effect cosmic rays have on the formation of clouds in the earth's lower troposphere. An interesting outgrowth is that long term temperature measurements on earth have suggested something so esoteric as revisions to our sun's path through the galaxy. We have known for a couple of centuries that there seemed to be some correlation between wheat prices (a proxy for temperature variation) and sunspots. Prominent researchers in the last 2 decades have suggested further study after observing that temperature history tracks sunspots better than greenhouse gases. Others note the rather small anthropogenic contribution to the growth of greenhouse gases. Thus, a significant human-caused temperature effect is unlikely, even if greenhouse gases are implicated. Still others found that the predicted warming of the atmosphere above the earth's surface simply did not occur. In 1996 the existing theory for formation of clouds in the troposphere was killed (NASA measurements published in 1998). It became apparent that we knew a lot less about the formation of clouds than most people assumed. The Svensmark team has demonstrated a new cloud formation mechanism in a conceptually simple, but technically brilliant experiment. It showed the rapid formation of aerosols critical to building clouds in the basement of their labs in Copenhagen. This aerosol formation requires the presence of highly energetic cosmic rays that pass through all of us with great frequency (including their basement). With variations in the solar wind sweeping aside some cosmic rays, it is now possible to explain the last millennium's temperature variations. The explanation works not only for the globe, but also for the various regions of the globe, such as Antarctica. Existing warming theory based on greenhouse gases has been unable to do this. CERN plans to replicate the Svensmark experiment with significant extensions

Science writer Nigel Calder does an admirable job of explaining Henik Svensmark climate change observations and theories. He makes Henik's sun-earth climate change connection very understandable to the lay person. Unlike the current anthropogenic forcing theory of global warming which is based on just a few decades of measurements and unproven computer models, Svensmark's hard data spanning thousands of years of observation and analysis. It's surprising that so much research has been done in this area, but has been largely ignored by the media and politicians. I guess if they cannot assign responsibilty for global warming to people its not worth pursuing. The important point is that this book reveals clear investment opportunities for significant profit as people and governments continue to make economic decisions based on faulty assumptions with regard to the cause and effect relationships of global warming. I would recommend this book strongly to any serious long range investor.