The Challenges of China's Growth

Dwight H. Perkins delivered this essay as part of The Henry Wendt Lecture Series on May 9, 2006. All of us are concerned about China, its rapid growth, and what that will mean for the world (and, really, the problems it could mean for us). Perkins surveys the China's post Mao history (since 1978, so a bit after) and the wrenching changes the country has undergone. He also takes a look at various approaches to China's future growth. Most people do have some concern that China's per capita income can be a quarter of ours and their economy will surpass ours in overall size. Of course, they still have a long way to go. The section on the sources of political tension within China is fascinating. The changes and urbanization of China are straining the capacities of the cities and even building them fast enough. It also has a big implication on the 200 or 300 million migrant workers that keep their agriculture working. On top of that, the population is aging rapidly because of the one child policy. One cannot believably view China's future as clear sailing to global economic domination. Just remember the concern so many had about Japan in the 1980s. Yes, there are many differences between Japan then and China now, but it is still a relevant cautionary tale. However, the economic expansion within China is going to necessarily have a big impact on the rest of the globe. We will not only compete for basic resources, but the markets for advanced goods and services will also be affected by such a mammoth nation and its output. However, as it grows, its internal demand will also skyrocket. Many of the resources now used by China for exports will be demanded by its own people, so things will change again. Also, the tremendous pollution it now accepts as part of economic growth will almost certainly be rejected as people become better off. Also, the effects of this pollution on other nations will likely be the subject of intense political negotiations. A very interesting lecture and a lot for us to think about. It is less than fifty pages long and something anyone interested in China and its place in the world will want to read.