The Bill James Handbook

I'm a raving fan of the Bill James Baseball Handbook. This year's edition has everything that you would expect from the Bill James Baseball Handbook - plus some new wrinkles, including: career post-season stats (through 2007) and a new section on relief pitching. Some interesting facts and figures from the Bill James Handbook 2009: Did you know that Joe Girardi had Yankees runners moving with a pitch 173 times in 2008? That was tops in the majors - and the tops in the A.L., by far. Yet, this past season, the Yankees were 62/230 in terms of going "1st to 3rd" on the bases - and 110/192 going "2nd to home." For a point of comparison, the Rays were 60/199 going "1st to 3rd" and 105/185 going "2nd to home." And, the Angels were 85/235 going "1st to 3rd" and 121/202 going "2nd to home." And, in terms of "manufacturing" a run - in terms of producing a run where a stolen base, bunt, or pinch-runner was involved, the Yankees "manufactured" 52 of these types of runs in 2008. For a point of comparison, the Twins had 95 of these runs, the Angels had 65, the Red Sox had 57, and the Rays had 62. O.K., that's just a taste of the sort of stuff that you can find in the Bill James Handbook 2009. I highly recommend this book to anyone who enjoys baseball stats. You can sit with it for hours and enjoy it. I know that I will...in fact, that's why I'm not writing more about it now...as I'd rather be reading it at this moment that writing about it.

So assuming you haven't been hiding under a rock for the past 30 years or so, and you have even the slightest interest in statistical analysis and/or fantasy baseball, you know who Bill James is. Hopefully you've picked prior versions of this book so it isn't a completely new topic to you. But If it is your first encounter with Mr. James' work - don't do yourself the disservice of just picking TBJH2009 up and flipping through it. The majority of pages contain statistics and you'll probably just dismiss it as being an encyclopedia of players' performance. Not that this isn't entirely true...but the real key is to understand why the book contains all this data. James has been at work for 30 years trying to figure out the correlation of numbers to winning. He knew that it wasn't all about the "traditional" statistics - batting average, win-loss record, and ERA to name a few...he sensed that there was something more out there that could be used as a gauge of a player's ability to contribute to his team's ability to win ballgames. It's James' thinking about the relation of statistics to winning that is what deliver the punch of the book. Even though it only occupies a dozen or so pages, his analysis and introduction to certain statistical categories give the numbers context and meaning, and turn them into things that should be thought about as opposed to just looked at. The first thing that really captured my attention - and this is on page 321, mind you - is his article on bullpens, specifically his assigning of positions to the pitchers who comprise a bullpen. It's not fair to compare a utility reliever to a closer - yet the current mainstream thinking does just that. Each pitcher in the bullpen comes into the game in different situations, and James argues that we need to look at their performance on an individual basis while in the context of their role. The Bill James Handbook 2009 provides the tools and instructions for doing just that, and the result is a smarter and more educated fan. In the same vain of understanding what affects success, James and the crew at Baseaball Info Solutions have provided a tremendous amount of data on managers - how many lineups they use, how quick they are to pull their starting pitchers, and one of my favorites - how successful they are when they call for an intentional walk. Managers tend to be either overlooked or somewhat unfairly criticized, and James reminds the reader that he is there "trying to pollute the discussion of managers with actual facts." To James, it's one thing to suppose something, it's quite another to actually have numbers and facts that can be used to support tendencies. What James and his collaborators ultimately are trying to do with The Bill James Handbook 2009 - besides sell books, of course - is to challenge your way of thinking and to take the shackles off your brain and allow you to look at statistics and numbers in a whole new light and not only learn what they think, but pos

Those familiar with the Bill James Handbooks will know what the 2008 version is about. This volume is chock full of intriguing statistics. One part that I like is a prediction of how various players are expected to do in the next baseball season (in this case, 2008). On pages 442 and following, we see the projected batting figures for players; on pages 456 and following, we see projections for pitchers for 2008. This year, the work does not contain predictions of career totals, given the uncertainty of injuries. Let's take a look at some predictions for 2008: Prince Fielder is projected to hit 44 homers with a batting average of .289; he is predicted to steal 4 bases and be caught twice. Frank Thomas, nearing the end of his career is projected to hit 28 home runs with a batting average of .262. One nice thing about the book is that it provides an indicator of how accurate last year's predictions were. Fielder was predicted to have the following statistics in 2007: 30 homers and a .280 batting average; his real productivity was 50 homers and a .288 average. Injuries accounted for some erroneous projections, as with Joe Crede and Scott Rolen. The text notes which predictions were way off and which were pretty accurate. A nice bit of accountability. There are the unique statistics created and developed by Bill James and his colleagues, such as team efficiency, baseball park indices, those batters who are most apt to swing at the first pitch (Delmon Young in the AL, at 51.4% of first pitches; the corresponding NL figure is Jeff Francouer at 44.1%), those who are least likely to swing at first pitches (e.g., Reggie Willitts of the Angels at 4.6% and J. J. Hardy of Milwaukee at 7.9%. And on it goes. So, this book gives baseball fans a chance to start gearing up for 2008, provides lots of material for hot stove league discussions, and gets one to thinking about performance of major league players in a different way.

This book is always interesting to read. It has a lot great info on every stat you can think of. Bill James has a talent for baseball statistics that will be valued for years to come. If you want a great book on hitting technique I would get The Science of Hitting by Ted Williams. Wonderful book that shows you how to hit over .300.

As a fantasy sports aficionado, I have found this book to be a MUST HAVE for anyone considering entering a competitive league. The insightful analysis of players' chances of breaking career marks (by Ryan Galla) is thought provoking, and takes into account many factors that I would probably have never thought of otherwise. Galla is clearly the heart and soul of the company that put together this wonderful book, and has a very bright future in the field of baseball analysis. A must have for any baseball fan. Bravo!