The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook: Congressional Budget Office

The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Each year, the Congressional Budget Office publishes a report presenting its budget projections for the next 30 years. Those extended baseline projections generally reflect current law. This report is the latest in the series. It includes: Debt in
CBO's Extended Baseline Projections: Projection incorporates CBO's central estimates of various factors, such as productivity growth and interest rates on federal debt.
Debt Under Alternative Scenarios: If lawmakers changed current laws to maintain certain major policies now in place-most significantly, if they prevented a cut in discretionary spending in 2020 and an increase in individual income taxes in 2026-then debt held by the public would increase even more, reaching 219 percent of GDP by 2049.
Other Possible Outcomes: The agency's projections of debt are highly sensitive to changes in the factors underlying them.
Interest Costs: The projected increase in federal borrowing would lead to significantly higher interest costs.
Noninterest Spending: Mainly owing to the aging of the population, spending for Social Security and the major health care programs (primarily Medicare) is projected to rise as a percentage of GDP over the coming decades.
Revenues: Measured as a percentage of GDP, revenues are projected to be roughly flat over the next few years, rise slowly, and then jump in 2026 because of the scheduled expiration of certain provisions of the 2017 tax act.
Comparison With Last Year's Projections: Debt as a percentage of GDP in 2048 is 11 percentage points lower in this year's extended baseline projections than it was in last year's.

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