Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities

This book uses statistics to demonstrate that "truths" that we often site just are not proven when we look at the numbers. A good read

Jeffrey Rosenthal's book 'Struck by Lightning' provides a fun introduction to statistical concepts without the need for higher math. He makes the reader aware of how various laws of statistics influence our decisions and perceptions - and gives some guidance on how to avoid getting hoodwinked by screaming headlines or too-good-to-be-true sales pitches and offers. The book is written for the general public and covers a wide range of statistical areas - from game theory and probablities to chaos and randomness - without sounding academic. People already familiar with statistics will find this an entertaining read to see how theory applies to real life, including the interpretation of medical studies, election results and crime statistics.

'Curious' is a quick read about our conceptions and misconceptions on common problems like winning lotteries (don't buy a ticket), winning card games, death, illness, opinion polls and a dozen or so other topics. Fun stuff. You might also read 'Freakanomics' which is way more esoteric and mind-boggling.

This book is written in short, digestible bites, and offers one of the best overview answers I've read to everyone's perennial question, "What are the odds?" Early chapters are a primer on casino games. In less than an hour, you can read up on how the major casino games are played, how to calculate your odds of winning in many common situations - and how much you will lose on every play on average if you play for any length of time. Rosenthal emphasizes this last proviso. He shows how EVERY casino game is stacked against the players and will whittle away your stake to nothing in the long run. But some games offer better odds and will deplete you less rapidly than other games. Then Rosenthal moves on to tell you how to win at the game of life - or more precisely, how not to be caught up in the frequent illogic and hysteria that is generated by headline news and TV shows. He gives a better perspective on what kinds of dangers you are likely to actually face - and they are not terrorists or SARS or street crime. A few more mathematically challenging topics are addressed - such as the Monty Hall dilemma, and how trends are spotted using linear regression lines. Rosenthal makes the calculation of p-values (used to determine how often a result will happen just by chance) almost comprehensible. Some of his suggestions about using utility theory when we have to reach a decision may be of questionable value. Probably many of us have tried to make decisions "rationally" by using some formula that involves assigning some level-of-desirability number to each of our options, then considering how likely it is that the benefits of that option will actually materialize. But such calculations usually break down almost immediately in the maze of diverging possibilities we have to consider. However one of Rosenthal's applications of utility theory stands up and has implications for public policy. He shows how statistics lead to the conclusion that it is unreasonably costly to insure oneself against anything except utter catastrophes. This section of his book is something everyone should consider when buying insurance, especially health insurance. And it's something our elected officials in particular should inform themselves about before proposing any health care legislation. Rosenthal provides other valuable insights that might shield us and reassure us when facing health care issues. For example, he demonstrates how statistically unlikely it is that you have a certain disease if just one test for that disease comes back positive. For further statistical discussions of this counterintuitive fact, I recommend any of Marilyn vos Savant's books. "Struck by Lightning" provides ample insight on its own though. It's entertaining, and it contains information you're very likely to use in everyday life.

Shortly after I took this book out at the library I felt a sense of disappointment come over me because I saw the Canadian maple leaf on the spine of the book - making me aware it's a Canadian author. Being a Canuck myself, I've never been a big fan of Canadian lit but just as soon as I started reading this book I knew I was in for a treat! Struck by Lightning is a book about probabilities and randomness in everyday life, intended to inform and entertain readers without requiring any mathematics background. Odds are you'll like this Lightning strike. These type of books are so much fun ... anecdotes and examples which will stay with the reader long after the last page is turned. And there are not many books that can manage that feat. Lightning strikes are just the start of an exploration of the odds which confront us all. For the booming numbers of poker players there are numerous studies on when to hold em and when to fold em. And for regular casino-goers, there are the odds of each popular game of chance none of which are ever in the player's favour. But the most fun are those tidbits of probabilities with which you can astound your friends and make some cash if you want to rub your knowledge in their collective faces. ... Amaze your friends, confound your rivals. Buy Struck By Lightning and have some fun.