Baseball Forecaster: Gravity Defying Edition

Let the record show that I am not a fantasy baseball participant: I have only participated in one such league, and it was a season long home run derby. I think I finished third or fourth, if it's of any consequence to you. I've only participated in one other fantasy venture - a hockey league that I drafted my players and promptly forgot about it. I don't even know where I stand in that league. While I don't participate in fantasy sports, I certainly appreciate the analysis and insight that those who do have brought to the table for discussion. When you are serious about the league you are playing in, and by serious I mean willing to put money out on your predictions, you want the best information as possible. That is what Ron Shandler and his crew are trying to deliver, and is what they once again succeed at doing, of course with the all important disclaimers. When I spoke with Mr. Shandler last year about his 22nd edition, he was careful to remind all of us that right now, the best projection systems are only able to achieve about 70% accuracy. That number is still in effect with the 23rd edition, so bear in mind that there is still a fairly large amount of space that can't be nailed down. Along with that, it's tough to be critical of the projections that the book puts forth because we won't know their accuracy until after the season, which isn't the best time to put out a review of a book such as this. So I'm leaving the projection side alone, and focusing on the commentary and analysis portions of the book, which I find to be the real juicy parts and the ones that almost any fan can get into, regardless of whether or not they participate in fantasy baseball. For me, the first 50 pages of the 271 in the book are where the goodies lie - Shandler and his contributors do a remarkable job explaining their thoughts and strategies in a way that makes it easy to understand and gives the reader an understanding of the trends that shape player performance and valuation. If anything, the book is brutally honest - case in point, The Gravity Principles, mentioned on page 23, which basically state that it is incredibly hard to be good, and that all levels of success are susceptible to disappearing at any time. Likewise, it's much harder to get yourself out of a slump than it is to maintain a level of success. The Baseball Forecaster also establishes age and performance markers that help you really see if a prospect or player is worth picking up or not. Having crunched the data on thousands of players over many, many years, they have developed a fairly accurate way to look at a player and see what he might be capable of. Again, by no means a definitive set of criteria, but something that does provide a guide tempered by historical research. As I read the book, I began feeling that I could make the argument that this is as much a life philosophy title as it is a baseball book focusing on fantasy projections. It strips down the task of trying to predic

Can't put it down. Breaks the previous 5 years into pieces that help you track trends. Advice: Don't always go by what the projections/blurb says, make up your own mind and this book will be far more use to you. A must read.

I have used Ron Shandlers predictions for years and one of my leagues most dominating teams. Some points I would like to share. Ron does a great job of finding the key factors that contribute to a player either bouncing back or breaking out. I have noticed though he is a lot better on the pitcher side then the hitter side. I use Rotoman's Fantasy Guide for the hitters. Still this is a great book to find sleepers.

OK, that was heresy. Nonetheless this book is the standard by which other Fantasy books should be judged. Shandler and his merry band at Baseball HQ continue to explore the ways in which on-field results can be reflected statistically. Then they pursue new methods to interpret the data and project future on-field performance. If you already visit the Baseball HQ website, then some of the essays may be redundant. They are still worth reading and are as entertaining as ever. The player descriptions are light and pithy, yet full of insight. I pore over this book for hours and enjoy every minute of it.

I have bought this annual for the last 4 years and I am more amazed year after year. Shandler comes as close as possible to predicting the final numbers for every major leaguer while giving you all the numbers you could possibly need to predict who might be in-line for a breakout and who might be in for a "down" year. His love for the game is shown on every page and if you value your fantasy baseball team then this is a must own item. Great book!