Rivals: How the Power Struggle Between China, India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade

"Rivals" is an excellent and very readable book containing clear, bold analyses of how the rivalry among China, Japan and India will likely pan out in the 21st century. There are three separate chapters each devoted to giving an update and overview of current developments in these three countries followed by two superbly argued roundups recalling historical rivalries and forecasting future flashpoints, that will appeal to anybody with an interest in the geopolitics of Asia. The coverage isn't exactly balanced though - there is a lot more of China and Japan than there is of India for the simple reason that India is rather the odd man out when measured by the intensity of historical relationships among the three. Bill Emmott's book makes a welcome addition to the reading list of students of current affairs. Highly recommended.

`Rivals' describes and analyzes the history, demographics, economics, policies, diplomacy and other factors that are and will determine the development and relationships of Asia's 3 leading powers: China, India and Japan. If you read The Economist, you will appreciate that Emmott provides a comparable level of accuracy, analytical astuteness, understanding of countries' espoused vs. true intentions and a desire to understand and predict the future. Moreover, Emmott confidently and succinctly describes the relationships and policy/military `domino effects' that could potentially occur in various regions/situations with impartiality that is rarely seen elsewhere. The book's chapters are (essentially): 1. Intro 2. Asia Overview 3. China 4. Japan 5. India 6. China/India/Japan + Environmental Issues (Mainly Global Warming) 7. China/Japan/Korea Tension In Detail 8. Conflict `Flare Up' Regions/Situations: Pakistan, Tibet, North Korea, Taiwan, 9. Conclusion + 9 Policy/Diplomacy Recommendations + Asia Outlook Many are writing books on development and the potential issues in Asia. Rivals is a read for you if you want: 1. Insightful distillation of the key factors and history shaping development, global relationships and interactions of China/India/Japan. 2. Understanding of what disputes could potentially `flare up' into global conflict and how these would involve the US/EU. 3. Recommendations on how policymakers should proceed. 4. `The Economist' level of even-handedness. One major criticism: There is a missing chapter: ASEAN countries in relation to China/India/Japan. As a result, issues like Myanmar are glossed over while issues like rocks/lighthouses in the East China Sea are given several pages. ASEAN countries will continue to play an increasingly important economic and diplomatic role in the future as they seek prosperity that is not limited by their scale. Having said that, I still highly recommend this book for its astute coverage of China, India and Japan.

RIVALS: HOW THE POWER STRUGGLE BETWEEN CHINA, INDIA AND JAPAN WILL SHAPE OUR NEXT DECADE is the first book to predict the economic trends of all three nations, exploring how these trends will affect the world and the environment, and pose risks to global peace. But it doesn't stop at an assessment of possible dangers: the meat of RIVALS lies in its blend of analysis and nine specific recommendations on how their rivalry can be managed for optimum benefit to the world. College-level collections strong in Asian social issues in particular will find it important.

In Rivals, Bill Emmott, a former reporter for the Economist in Japan and, until 2006, the editor in chief of the magazine, shows us that no other region will have as fundamental an impact, or play as crucial a role, on the international scene than Asia in the coming decades. From intensifying regional trade, economic development and their impact on the environment to spending on defense and nuclear nonproliferation, Asia -- with China, Japan and India acting as pillars -- is transforming at a stunning pace, and the variables involved in this complex relationship are such that predicting its future course is an impossible task, something Emmott himself admits. Still, by looking at key regional aspects -- economics, defense, domestic politics, the environment, and history as an active contemporary agent -- Emmott sees certain trends emerging that could help us narrow down the possible futures to "plausible pessimism" and "credible optimism." What quickly becomes evident is that China is now the center of gravity in the region, both in terms of its economic might and as the shaper of politics. Emmott, as do a handful of other authors, maintains that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is here to stay and that it has the wherewithal to deal with the number of isolated challenges that may arise domestically. Aside from environmental degradation and its impact on human health, no other issue in China has the potential, he argues, to mobilize the population to the extent that it could threaten the regime; nationalism, such as in Tibet or Xinjiang, is too localized to spread throughout China, which thus makes it possible for the CCP to rely on force to put down disturbances. Its economy, meanwhile, has become solid and mature enough to withstand most shocks. Japan, no so long ago the undisputed regional leader, has been supine since the 1990s, but Emmott sees signs that its government has launched reforms that, in the long term, could bring about its recovery. A certain sense of urgency, inspired by China's rise, could also accelerate that process and encourage those within the Liberal Democratic Party (and in Washington) who seek to amend the country's peaceful Constitution so that Japan could become a "normal" country once again and play the role it believes it should be playing in the region. In Emmott's view, discarding Japan as a passe regional power would be a serious oversight, as would ignoring recent reporting that a majority of Japanese support their government taking a harder stance vis-a-vis China. Last is India, the oft-forgotten emerging power whose role as a strategic counterweight on the balance-of-power chessboard could be the determining factor in the future course of the region. While India remains nowhere near as developed as China or Japan, it is nevertheless beginning to make its presence felt in some regional institutions, joint military exercises, and through the modernization of its forces. Furthermore, sensing its utility as a

Bill Emmott's thesis is, as the title makes plain, that Asia's three great powers are competing against each other rather than conspiring against the West. He shows this by always returning to the national interests that drive each country's progress and by explaining how shared interests can quickly turn into conflicting and competing ones. The book is divided into nine chapters. Chapters one and two examine the diplomatic environment in which China, Japan, and India interact and the economic and military forces that are shaping their relationships. Chapters three to five look individually at China, Japan, and India. Emmott examines their internal politics, their economic development, their peculiarities, and their national economic and foreign policies. Chapters six to eight look at three crucial diplomatic issues among the three powers: environmental impact, history, and the risk of conflict. The chapter on historical holdovers is particularly useful in understanding the source of rivalries. The chapter on the risks of military conflict is perhaps the most important in the book. It underlines the danger to world peace that rivalries among the Asian powers present. Among the five flashpoints Emmott looks at are how a war could start between between China and India, and how a war could start over North Korea should that country's regime collapse suddenly. Given that Asia has four declared nuclear powers (China, India, Pakistan, North Korea) and a potential one (Japan), peace among them matters. Emmott ends the book by comparing 21st century Asia with 19th century Europe. Just as the Concert of Europe gave it 50 years of solid peace and then broken only by relatively small wars (when compared with the Napoleonic Wars) the Asian Drama in developing neatly. To ensure the smooth unfolding the this drama, Emmott would like to see nine recommendations followed. Many of these are ironically directed towards the United States, not an Asian nation, simply because it is the de facto beast of burden of international politics. "Rivals" concludes by making a case for both "plausible pessimism" and "credible optimism". A healthy diplomatic environment in Asia matters to the whole world. Vincent Poirier, Tokyo