Retreat from Doomsday

I cannot fathom that this 1989 book, and Mueller's work more generally (which can be downloaded from http://polisci.osu.edu/faculty/jmueller/links.htm ) are almost completely unknown by the "pundit" community, to say nothing of the public. One looks to Mueller and then to, say, Martin van Creveld (who published Transformation of War two years later) and it's crystal clear that it was Creveld who got it wrong. Although he uses a quite rethorical writing, Mueller actually takes a cold, impartial look at the quintaessential form of violence: war. Although he does mention in passing that violence in general has been declining throughout human history, this book is specifically about war and attittudes towards war. Once upon a time war was the most noble practice, he tells us: kings and lords proudly rushed to war, clerics called for crusades and jihads (today's scattered bombings, apart from serious conflict in a handful of muslim countries, are a pathetic remnant of what holy war used to be), and the ordinary people got massacred and also, quite often, joined armies to commit atrocities. There was a time when war advocates did not even need to search for a good excuse or proclaim its usefulness: it was simply right to go to war, just like it is right now to take part in charitable and environmental activities (as useless as ti may be, according to some). Mueller traces the rise of war aversion and the anti-war movement, beginning the Quakers, then with the Netherlands in early 18th century who, all of a sudden, find that war is a repulsive practice that doesn't serve them any more. More and more countries progressively become "Hollandized", yet still, war as an institution is still formidable and a daily thought among policy-makers on the eve of the First World War. In the previous several years, though, the anti-war crowd had grown into a dedicated, passionate movement that was lobbying and selling its ideas at the high spheres. What changed everything forever was not the atomic bomb. It was the Great War. Since then, war has had its ups and downs and i'm not going to spoil you the book, but eventually all rivers end in the sea. According to Mueller, the trend is unmistakable and major war, that is, war among developed states, is in its last throes. Time and history have vindicated him and, now, ALL forms of war (and violence in general) are at or near a historical low. The 4th Generation crowd, global guerrillas, etc. simply got it wrong. Many analysts and experts still refuse to see the truth and thus we have them characterising as "war" or "conflict" whatever attack by a lone hacker may happen. But war, unmistakably, is dying. Also recommend QUIET CATACLYSM, his other major work.