Profiting from Chaos: Using Chaos Theory for Market Timing, Stock Selection, and Option Valuation

The topic of this book: Using Chaos Theory for Market Timing, Stock Selection and Option Valuation--corresponds to that area of Economics reflected in the current Nobel Prize in Economics Winners for 2003! This book by Tonis Vaga, "Profiting from Chaos: Using Chaos Theory for Market Timing, Stock Selection, and Option Valuation", Dec., 1994; ISBN 0-07-066786-1 is about 9 years ahead of its time. The original definition of chaos emphasized the apparent unpredictable behavior arising in a dynamic deterministic system because of great sensitivity to initial conditions. If two arbitrarily close starting points diverge exponentially so that their future behavior becomes unpredictable then chaos has arisen! This is characteristic of weather, stock markets, and commodity markets. However, short term and middle term weather forecasting is performed regularly before the long term effects of chaos sets in. This is the same type of strategy used in this book for Market Timing, Stock Selection, and Option Valuation by use of Chaos Theory. There is an underlying regularity in a function that exhibits chaos which can be revealed by systematic perturbations to the trajectory. Just like weather forecasting can be successful by redefining the short and medium term (i.e., defacto systematic perturbations) then "Profiting from Chaos" in the short and medium term is also possible. The Nobel Committee in Oslo, Norway has just confirmed the underlying thesis of Tonis Varga's book by this year's Nobel Prize in Economics award! I suspect that a revised edition will now be in the works, but get the original version before it is too late!