Preparing for 21st Century

Despite being nearly 15 years old, this book hits a lot of the key points on the money. No, Kennedy didn't know in 1993 how bad global warming might be, nor how strong Islamic fanaticism might become, nor how much rich-poor gaps, both North-South and within some countries like the U.S., might become. But, that these issues, along with demographics and non-warming environmental issues, would be the touchstones for individual countries, and the world as a whole, he was right on the money. I think Kennedy could well serve the public by coming out with a revised edition to reflect further knowledge and offer further prognostications.

Paul Kennedy's "Preparing for the Twenty-First Century" is an intellectual look at global trends ranging from global warming to the scientific breakthroughs in biotechnology and robotics. He begins his analysis by discussing one of the world's greatest challenges today - population growth. The world today is similar to that of what Thomas Malthus saw in 1798, a population that could and would outgrow the resources available. One of the more entertaining subjects for students of political thought is his analysis of economic globalization. Mr. Kennedy points to some specific reasons on why the economic progress of globalization has been so slow forthcoming: corrupt regimes, excess military funding, and religious fundamentalism, to name a few. Mr. Kennedy believes that a global shift towards biotechnology would allow us to move away from traditional farming practices; therefore making it easier to fight global threats such as starvation and economic deprivation. There are, of course, many other issues discussed in "Preparing for the Twenty-First Century." In conclusion, Mr. Kennedy's thoughts on the future of the American Empire are of a pessimistic view. As he states, with a great support of factual information, the continuous decline in economic growth, loss in per capita productivity, and a rising trade deficit are issues of serious concern. Besides the economic threats, the country also faces social challenges in areas of crime, health, and education. A must read for under-graduate and graduate students of political science and thought.

Kennedy's careful and insightful analysis of various regions of the world and their outlooks for the 21st century is a "must" read for anyone who cares for the future of this country or, indeed, the world -- and, I hope, this includes our lawmakers and President. He identifies population growth as the common driver of the issues facing virtually every region. His forecast for the future of the US is not encouraging. It is regrettable, however, that the author did not include a two-dimensional spreadsheet comparing the regions on all the parameters he identifies. While written in 1993, the forecasts are so accurate that one might think it was written last year.

Another outstanding work by Paul Kennedy. One question that I've been pondering over the past few years is "Will America fall from its preeminent position like all the superpowers of the past (Rome, China, UK) ?" . I think Paul Kennedy answered the question when he said that the US is undergoing a long, slow, relative (to the rest of the world) decline, similar to what happened to the UK in the 20th century. I know I'll catch heat from some of my fellow Americans who want to believe America will be the only superpower to the end of time. However, the cycle of rise, dominance, and decline of great nations has never been broken and we should be prepared to adjust to that inevitable outcome.

Like a lot of readers, I gulped down Paul Kennedy's THE RISE AND FALL OF THE GREAT POWERS when it came out in 1987, eager to read his predictions for the US, Japan, China, Russia, and the European Community. His reasoning, solidly based on his detailed knowledge of European history, made his book appear sedately respectable--even to those who did not agree with his conclusions. His second volume, PREPARING FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY, was inevitably a different sort of project: extrapolation of then-current trends into the new millenium. The book was published in 1993, but I didn't finish reading it until this summer; one of its pleasures was seeing how close his predictions came to the reality of events in places such as Japan and Russia. (His view toward Japan was one of "guarded optimisn": he felt it was in some ways best-suited for the challenges of the 21st century, but he pinpointed its vulnerabilities and deficiencies--especially the weakness of its political leadership, which is now proving so costly. With regard to Russia and to Eastern Europe, he was clearly pessimistic but attempted to consider more moderate possibilities; in the end he tended to underestimate the catastrophes ahead.) In many ways the second book shares the strengths of the first: sound reasoning, a good base of facts, and a point of view neither alarmist nor Pollyannish. Kennedy identifies trends, issues, and problems; he attempts to clarify choices and parameters. He suggests potential winners and losers of various scenarios. He does what he sets out to do; but most people don't really like this second volume, I think, because he is honest about the magnitude of the issues and the limits of possible responses. Kennedy focuses on trends in demographics, economics, technology, ecology, and politics: things like globalization and robotics and biotechnology--but he puts these glittering changes into specific contexts. Who wins, and who loses, he asks, when these trends interact with the specifics of cultures as diverse as China and Sweden, Japan and Mexico, Russia and Ethiopia? And how do the interactions among various trends intensify the impact of each? How much can political and economic leaders do to magnify advantages or minimize deficits? And how likely are the elites to do the right thing? Without advocating fatalism, Kennedy ends his book by saying, "...in the unlikely event that governments and societies do decide to transform themselves, we ought to recognize that our endeavors might have only a marginal efect on the profound driving forces of today's world." This is NOT what the elites want to hear, but in a month of Japanese recession sliding into depression and Russian debility crumbling into chaos, Paul Kennedy's cool rationality seems more relevant than ever.