Megatrends 2000: Ten New Directions for the 1990's

Then the turning away from the religion of technology and the reemergence of spirituality as manifested in the religious revival are signs of great hope. Having vowed to make war and weapons of mass destruction obsolete, a renew humanity begins the task of healing the environment. (John Naisbitt - Megatrend 2000)Here are some of the question Naisbitt raises:Is the Millenium the symbolic struggle between Good verses Evil? Is the Millenium revival a metaphor of choice, where, on one hand man can destroy himself through: nuclear annihilation, bio terror, or the green house effect; and on the other hand, God destroys the wicked because of their willfull disobedience to his laws. What does it mean when we hear "God is Dead" espoused by the Greek Nietzsche philosophy of those who worship science? Are we prepared to embrace and accept both sides of human nature? Do we have to abandon our humanity too embrace science? Is the spiritual revival a quest to better our lives and our neighbors?In times of religious persecution, economic hard times, social change people seek to escape out of history seek millennial promises of peace and plenty.Science and technology do not tell us the meaning of life. One starts to rediscover the emotional side of life. There is a deep need for emotional fulfillment through religion. In tough times, people anchor down with either fundamentalism or spiritualistic experiences. As stronger emotional needs start surface, more advocacy of millennial doctrine will occur with rhetoric centering on themes of apocalyptic destruction and the final return and reign of Christ. The end out come will be "Good" has over "Evil".Fundamentalism will increase: Shinto, Islam, Protestantism, Buddhism, and Judism.Joseph Cambell's in his book "Power of Myth" emphasized the importance and power of myth. Myth has power and influence on human behavior. Naisbitt indicates that in time of rapid change both inner-directed, "trust the feeling inside" and out-direction, "authoritive doctrine" will increase. "The Battle for God" further supports the idea of a religious revival with a vast potential to influence media, business, and politics.Naisbitt observes, one Shinto priest known as the "miracle man of Japan" won 5 million members, in Japan, United States, and Brazil with 80 percent being non-Japanese. Fundamentalist Soutern Baptists have become the largest Protestant denomination. Naisbitt says, "The Catholic Church is reflecting the evangelical influence by tolerating a full-fledged charismatic movement that make some Southern Baptist look tame". In North America new religions outside of the Judeo-Christian framework are growing: Moslem, followers of Islam, Buddhism, and Korean religions.The fundamentalist have used media to spread their message. Religion is targeting marketing, larger architectures to congregate, music, books and generating billions of dollars in business. The religous leader broadcast taylo made messages and content wh

1988 accord between United States and Canada to drop all trade barriers1992 reduction of trade barriers with twelve nations in the European Economic Community1988 Australia and New Zealands free trade agreements went into effect1988 Talks about a U.S Japan free trade accordFor a global economy-one marketplace-to work, we must eventually have completely free trade among the nations, just as we do within the nation-states themselves (John Naisbitt - Megatrend 2000)The United States biggest import is money. Its largest export by far are bonds, stocks, and other financial instruments. The United States is the largest producer in the global economy, it represents 25 percent of the world production and 5 percent of the population. Any country that attempts to remain economically closed and apart from the global economy will be left hopelessly behind.Global Economy trends 1) Privatization of Business 2) Bankruptcy 3) Stock Markets 4) decreasing reliance on the blue collar worker 5) increased reliance on telecommunications and technology 6) Decreasing size and importance of unions 7) elimination of the command economies 8) the rising growth rate of the pacific rim - the shift from European production to Asian production and wealth (China, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore). The pacific rim is experiencing the fastest period of economic growth more than five times of the industrial revolution. China and the four tigers have learned to skip over the industrial revolution and enter the informational revolution.

I'm afraid I'm going to have to disagree with a good many of the reviews written on here about this book. I first read this book in the mid 90's and am in the process of re-reading it today, and to a great degree many of the chapters are indeed still relevant. The strongest chapter in the book has to do with the rise of women in leadership positions. This was very forward looking in 1990 when it was written. At that particular time, there was only one female U.S. senator (Nancy Kassebaum), today there are 13 (including two each in California and Maine). Admittedly, there are some areas where the authors got it somewhat wrong. For example, the renaissence in the arts has not occurred at the expense of sports to the degree that the authors had thought it would. And the age of Nanotechnology has not been as progressive as they predicted. However, these are trivial points in an otherwise fine collection.

This book is the 1990 update to the blockbluster, Megatrends, by John Naisbitt from 1982. The date in the title of this book is a reference to the end point of the forecast period.I had first read the book near the time when it came out. I decided to reread it now because I was interested in examining how accurate the forecasts turned out, and then to study how the correct forecasts had been developed. Content analysis has long been a Naisbitt forte, and I wanted to see another test of its strengths and potential weaknesses.I was pleasantly surprised at how well the themes had held up. These include:(1) a global economic boom prompted by the information economy, freer trade, and a government bias towards economic expansion over political ideology.(2) a rapid growth in participation in the fine and finer arts.(3) the emergence of free markets in socialist economies. Here the progress has even been more rapid than most would have expected.(4) increasing similarities in global lifestyles with increased cultural nationalism.(5) privatization of the welfare state in the western democracies.(6) economic and cultural influence of Pacific Rim countries and California greatly expand.(7) women become much more important in leadership roles.(8) biotechnology makes great progress and raises major ethical issues, while biology becomes a more common metaphor.(9) religious revival led by fundamentalism and the desire for deep, personal experience.(10) triumph of the individual in becoming free of institutional constraints to become more in charge of one's own destiny. "The new responsibility of society is to reward the initiatives of the individual."The conclusion talks about the importance of overcoming the scourges of disease (such as AIDS) and global poverty.As a result, I would have to give this book five stars for forecasting . . . realizing how chancy that business is by nature. On the other hand, I found the book to be long and tedious to read. I gave it three stars for the quality and clarity of explanation of the key points. In many cases, examples drone on and on, but relatively few points were made or supported directly. Perhaps it is just my perspective, but the chapter on women in leadership seemed particularly weak from this point of view. Equally of interest were the things that were not forecast: that communism would fall except in a revised form in China and Cuba; that the United States would become a more dominant economic and political power; that Japan would have a terrible decade; and that government power in the world would be curtailed at such a rapid rate. But few got these factors right, and they used different methods from Naisbitt and Aburdene. I suspect that is because content analysis should be slow to pick up on these kinds of changes, but power analysis works well as demonstrated by James Dale Davidson and Lord Rees-Moog in their excellent books using this method.Where will we be in 2010? A continuation of

Suggest the authors write a similar forecast for the incredable decade to follow 2000-2010. This decade is bound to be even more astonishing. Allan Mowat