Make Your Own Luck: 12 Practical Steps to Taking Smarter Risks in Business

Although in previous reviews, the word "easy" is used, the value of this book is found by taking the time to give it serious study. "Make Your Own Luck" is not a simple read with slap-your-head insight at the end of each chapter. Rather, it provides a step-by-step methodology that, if you understand and follow it, increases the odds of your success. Even though I'm a highly productive person, prior to buying this book, my thoughts and actions related to a business plan were scattered and unproductive. Based on my anxiety, I instantly understood the value of "The Gambler's Dozen Predictive Map." This technique shows how to match goals (bets) against probability (the unknown), a process so clarifying that it inspired me to created a software application so I could easily use this technique on a wide-range of issues. I just finished studying the concept of "risk splits." After mastering the Predictive Map, it still took a few hours to wrap my mind around what the authors were describing; not because they are unclear, but because I've never before cast my thoughts using the patterns that they suggest. What I learned is that the hardest thing about making winning business decisions is understanding the impact of the future. By employing "risk splits," I can now look back from the future to analyze today, which is a major shift in my thinking process. I'm starting to define my "It," a task of concisely describing my business that I've put off for the past year. As I'm a writer and a programmer, describing objectives is easy for me. In this case, however, I've come to realize that the uncontrollable elements revealed in my Predictive Map increased my anxiety and scrambled my brain. In other words, without employing "magic thinking" (more commonly called "BS"), I didn't know enough about my own project to make a meaningful statement, or properly invest my time and money (called "marbles" in Luck-speak) to make it come to life.

This book is a must read for anyone who is serious about improving the odds that their actions will produce the intended results. The book has at least four things going for it: * The authors' deep, relevant experience in business, business theory and real-world decision making. * A practical, straightforward approach to acting in the face of uncertainty -- based on the sequential application of 12 skills and processes that, taken together, should improve anyone's "predictive intelligence." * Stories -- lots of engaging, memorable stories that bring the process to life. * Interactive elements that allow you to test your understanding of the material. For me, Make Your Own Luck has been more than just another good business book. As the CEO of a start-up business, I and my associates face more than our share of uncertainty. And, given our limited resources, the consequences of bad bets can be particularly unwelcome. We faced just such a situation a month ago when an important part of our business was underperforming. So, we turned to Make Your Own Luck and quickly realized that the source of our problems laid in steps 5 and 6 of the Gambler's Dozen, where we had relied on too much "magic" while failing to deal with an "elephant in the living room" (read the book and you will understand). Fortunately, we had a Plan B (also covered in step 6) and we are back on track. The book's advice was direct and effective - almost as though we had Shapiro and Stevenson on our Board asking tough questions and offering possible solutions. Like I said, it is a must read.

Frankly, I did not know quite what to expect as I began to read this book but it soon became obvious that Shapiro and Stevenson have much of value to say about the relevance of gambling to business organizations as well as to an individual's business career and personal life. They offer a concept which they call "Predictive Intelligence" (PI): "the ability to act in the face of uncertainty to bring about desired results." It involves a process which begins with recognizing whether or not one is in a betting situation. If so, they recommend "The Gambler's Dozen," steps by which to increase one's PI and thereby improve the odds when "placing" business bets, career bets, and life bets. If all this seems hokey, blame me. It really isn't. Shapiro and Stevenson are quite serious when asserting that "every purposive action is a bet; one acts now on the expectation or hope, but not the certainty, of the results that will be achieved in the future." I agree. Given that premise, it is highly desirable to increase one's PI. Shapiro and Stevenson explain how. Each of the steps which comprise "The Gambler's Dozen" is carefully positioned within the OOPA! process (i.e. Orient, Organize, Predict, and Act!) and for each, the authors create a context with equal care. Step #6, for example, should be initiated only after having completed the previous five Steps. Perhaps the easiest way to grasp Shapiro and Stevenson's methodology is to think of it as a sequence ot questions to be answered: 1. What future (i.e. desirable results) am I trying to create? 2. Will playing this "game" be worth it for me? 3. Do I need to make a radical shift now? 4. Whose help will I need and how must I obtain it? 5. How much "magic" will my current bets require? 6. If my current plan fails (or is insufficient), what is my Plan B? 7. What's the future space I'm betting into? 8. What are my best "left side" bets? 9. How much risk can I shed or shift? 10. What's the "it" I'm betting into? 11. Will I then be locked into a tighter set of follow-up bets? 12. How will I know when to call it quits? Over a period of time, through repeated use, this checklist will become almost second nature to "players" on Wall Street and in Las Vegas as well as to those making complicated career decisions and to executives who must decide, for example, whether or not to introduce a new product or service. In Blink, Malcolm Gladwell suggests that many of the best decisions are made instinctively, without much (if any) "homework," analysis, verification, etc. I agree. However, what Gladwell really doesn't consider in much depth is the fact that many "made in the blink of an eye" decisions reflect extensive prior experience in comparable situations. For example, many decisions in combat or in emergency rooms have life-or-death implications and must be made almost instantaneously. A master automotive mechanic may need only to listen to a running engine or to drive a vehicle a short distance before knowing almo

Decisions are BETS, and neither should be one step actions -- at least not if they are going to be good ones. "Making Your Own Luck" makes clear that the question to ask is not whether or not to "bet", but rather what one wants from the bet, what directions might get there, and what can help you bet most safely and with the greatest probability of winning. Our group found the chapter on "Defining the IT" particularly beneficial. Like a laser, consciously examining the core of what we wanted to accomplish helped us to cut through confusion and frustration, and became the cornerstone of our analysis. Clarity increased our efficiency, too, because it eliminated distracting options from the outset. Yes it's work -- but with the stories and models for success provided by Shapiro and Stevenson, it's fun work about which you feel great. After all, you've used your feelings and intellect to tip the scales to get "one for your side". The process is not only for business or those weighty decisions. Relationships, shopping, how to use that free evening -- all benefit from thoughtful reflection. The "Make Your Own Luck" website (...) has a fun feature "Test Your Mojo" that gives a sense of the book and insight into your own betting strengths and potential foibles.

I read "Make your own luck" more or less in one go this weekend. Its unquestionably worth the time and money. This doesn't mean I agree with everything in the book; but then if nothing in a book makes you uncomfortable, you probably didn't read it carefully or its not as good as you think it is. The book stands between standard texts on decision theory on the one hand and Malcolm Gladwell's bestseller, Blink on the other. Texts on decision-making provide a well-integrated, mathematically flawless theory. Unfortunately the theory leaves a lot out - for instance it tells you how to maximize your objective function ("goals" in common language) but says nothing about how you determine these goals. Similarly you learn how to choose between options but not how you arrive at these options in the first place. The Shapiro and Stevenson book addresses these critical gaps. It reminds you about the importance of determining your goals (self-evidently true, but how often we forget to) and provides rules of thumb or heuristics for where and how to look for the options that standard theory assumes somehow materialize. Moreover, the heuristics can endure when than mathematical formulae are long forgotten: how many people who studied Bayes rule (and didn't go on to become academics) actually remember what it says? Unlike a standard text, the book rests on engaging stories: the authors communicate their rules of thumb through anecdotes and apparently have derived these rules from anecdotes. Purists may sniff but it's the stories that make the book useful. Its trite and not particularly helpful to tell me to think about my ultimate goals; but if I've read memorable stories about people who did or didn't, I'm more likely to remember to do the obvious thing in a clutch situation. "Make your own luck" also made me think of Blink. At one level the messages of the two books seem to be in conflict. Gladwell claims that in many situations you have to rely on your intuition to make snap judgments because there just isn't enough time to do any thing else. Shapiro and Stevenson seem to take the opposite tack: they suggest that you follow all their rules in a structured and self-conscious way, including writing out our premises and arguments. I'm unpersuaded. In fact I think like Forrest Gump's box of chocolates, each of their rules is delectable on its own, and it may be inadvisable to eat the whole lot at once. And, I see the anecdotes as working mainly by seeping into the unconscious, so that when the time comes they can make better snap judgments. So I think the book is a complement to Blink, upgrading the reader's intuition rather than as a substitute for the formulaic prescriptions of standard decision theory. That makes it well worth the price of admission.