Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios

This book, written in 1997, is one of the very best works on scenario planning-or scenario learning, as the editors prefer. The 446-page book is a collection of 25 chapters by a variety of authors, each adding a perspective to the scenario learning process. Fahey and Randall explain how scenario learning builds on traditional scenario planning, then follow up with a chapter on integrating scenarios with strategy. Several essays explain basic approaches to constructing scenarios. The next section shows how to apply scenario learning in diverse contexts including industry scenarios, competitive positioning, technology investments, and anticipating new consumer products. The last section details the vital step of managing the organizational context for scenario learning. Included in this section is a contribution by Kees van der Heijden on the business idea, and Paul Schoemaker on common pitfalls in scenario planning. This book is an excellent resource on the practical use of scenarios in business strategy. It mostly avoids overcomplicating the process as some other books have done, and it focuses on practical strategic implementation, not scenarios for their own sake. At a time when the New Economy continually throws up surprises, looking ahead with scenario learning is more timely than ever.

If you talk to someone about using scenarios to think about the future, chances are that the other person will nod her/his head in agreement with whatever you have to say. That surface agreement, however, will be misleading because the other person is probably thinking about a totally different kind of scenario thinking than you are.Learning from the Future helps overcome that misunderstanding by explaining a large number of ways that scenarios can be used. The book contains 25 chapters which each look at a different aspect of scenario development and subsequent thinking. Three chapters look at what scenario learning is. Seven chapters explore basic approaches to constructing scenarios. Eight chapters describe how to apply scenarios in different contexts, like competitor evaluations, technology investing, making public policy decisions, and considering customers. The final section looks at how to create the right organizational environment for making and using scenarios for learning.You will benefit from reading the thoughts of many of the world's top experts and users of scenario learning including Peter Schwartz, Kees van der Keijden, Ian Wilson, Liam Fahey and Robert Randall. It is a great line-up, and what they have to say is good food for thought.If you would like a good introduction to scenario learning, this is an excellent place to start because the perspectives that are captured are unusually broad and appropriate. This book belongs in the business library of every business decision-maker. When an important question arises, you can use this book as a resource to think through how you might best use scenarios to create a better result. Enjoy!

Many, if not most, corporations try to utilize scenario planning in their strategy process. All too frequently, these efforts become routine: what if we increase (decrease) marketing budgets by 10%? What if raw material prices go up (down)? It's all pretty warm beer given the pace of business change every company faces.This book shows how to do it right. The editors have shaped the contributions of 24 experts iinto a thorough, rigorous book covering all the vital aspects of scenarios. The reader will find clear discussions of what scenarios should be and how organizations can use them to "learn from the future." There are chapters on tools and techniques (like simulation models), advice on implementation, and case studies from both the private and public sector. The last chapter, "Twenty Common Pitfalls in Scenario Planning" is especially valuable.Forewarned is forearmed. Any manager who does not want to go into the future blind and defenseless must read this book.

This impressive work shows how to harness imagination and strategic management techniques to create scenarios that simulate future opportunities and threats. Shows how to use scenario building, drawing on case studies and insights of 26 expert scenario developers. Presents a new system of scenario learning, bringing together strategic management, scenario technology, teamwork, creativity, and decision-making skills. This is a meaty and informative book.

Learning from the Future has completely changed my approach to conducting strategy and planning in my company. It has opened up endless possibilities for improving the quality of our strategy and planning processes and has given us some very powerful methods (and thinking tools) to create effective strategies and strategy management methodologies. I highly recommend this work to anyone who really wants to strengthen their ability to develop robust, well thought-out strategies for growing their business. The integration of scenarios with strategy is an unbeatable combination. I know of no other technology like it. A must for consultants.Mike Martinez; Strategy and Planning Mgr.; Hewlett Packard Co.