The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late 20th Centuryvolume 4

With his book, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (1991), Samuel P. Huntington introduced us to the third wave of democracy which had been transforming the world since its inception in 1974, and sparked a firestorm of academic literature on why this particularly successful democratic wave had come about and remained for so long. He identifies five changes in the world that paved the way for the latest wave of transitions to democracy: 1) the deepening legitimacy problems of authoritarian governments unable to cope with economic failures; 2) the burgeoning economies of many countries, which have raised living standards, levels of education and urbanization, while also raising civic expectations and the ability to express them; 3) changes in religious institutions which have made them more prone to oppose governmental authoritarianism than defend the status quo; 4) the push to promote human rights and democracy by external actors such as the US, the USSR under Gorbachev, and the European Community; and 5) the "snowballing" or demonstration effects, enhanced by new international communications, of democratization in other countries. These five changes that Huntington identifies become his five independent variables that bear influence on his dependent variable, democratization. Huntington feels it is important to clarify his dependant variable: The dependant variable of this study is not democracy, but democratization. The purpose is to explain why some countries that were authoritarian became democratic in a particular period of time. The focus is on regime change, not regime existence... At the simplest level, democratization involves: (1) the end of an authoritarian regime; (2) the installation of a democratic regime; and (3) the consolidation of the democratic regime. Different and contradictory causes may be responsible for each of these three developments. (Third Wave 34-35) For his sample of third wave nations Huntington studies the 31 nations that achieved democracy from 1974-1990, using case studies, comparative analysis and statistical research to analyze the relationship of the independent variables to the dependant variable. In showing the relationship between the declining legitimacy of authoritarian regimes and their subsequent democratization, Huntington delves into the theoretical. He first discusses the basis of authority for the regimes in his sample, prior to their democratization. Countries that had had democracy in their past had an inherent problem with being in an authoritarian state, "In a sense, the body politic of their society had been infected with the democratic virus... Authoritarian rulers were thus impelled to justify their own regimes by democratic rhetoric..." (Third Wave 47). Democratic regimes have the ability to continually renew their authority through built in regime change i.e. elections. Some authoritarian countries could develop limited renewal through legisl

"The Third Wave" by Samuel Huntington is a good introduction into democratization studies. Huntington, same as in his other books, uses a light style without too much specialist vocabulary and gives numerous fascinating examples from the history of the countries that underwent systemic transformation after 1974. Since his book is a comparative study, though, it leaves out many details crucial for understanding the specific path of democratization adopted in a given country. It also does not pay enough attention to the process of consolidation which has just began when the book was published. "The Third Wave, however, is just the right book for a beginning democratization student. I think even the critics of "The Clash of Civilizations" will be satisfied with "The Third Wave", which is less ideological and more fact-focused than Huntongton's most famous work. Kamil Marcinkiewicz University of Passau, Germany

While somewhat dated (the book was published in 1991), Huntington lays out a clear analysis of what led to the "third wave" of democratic development around the world. He considers the third wave as the countries that became democratic between 1973 and 1990 but it could be argued that, with changes in the Balkans and the "color revolutions" in Georgia, Ukraine and elsewhere, the third wave continued into the beginning of the 21st century. He looks at the authoritarian regimes that gave way to democracy and breaks the process down into transformations (authoritarian governments taking the lead in changing to democracy), replacements (opposition leaders moving a country to democracy) and transplacements (government and opposition negotiating the transition to democracy). In many cases this meant that reformers in the government and moderates in the opposition compromised to bring about the change. Huntington avoids predictions about the future, thereby avoiding mistakes where subsequent years could have proved him wrong. My standard for a "real democracy" has been whether or not there could be a peaceful transfer of power. Huntington sets the bar much higher - to consider democracy as taking hold there has to have been two peaceful transfers of power.

While not as heavily theoretical as some of Huntington's other works, this book is laden with apercus about why and how countries develop democracies, especially in the most recent wave (just to clarify, the first wave started in the early 1800's, the second occurred after World War II, and the third began in 1974 and included the countries liberated by the end of communism in the late 1980's.) The success of democratization is tied to various factors - the type and strength of the authoritarian regime that is facing this choice, its willingness to permit democratization, the strength of the movement that seeks to democratize, and that country's conditions (i.e. has it attempted to democratize before? How does religion affect the culture of that country?) Huntington's genius is to look at scores of seemingly disparate cases and discern patterns where democratization succeeds and fails. An interesting side note is Huntington's analysis of why countries democratize. Each wave had its own conditions, but several variables merit mentioning. As a country industrializes, it becomes increasingly difficult for an authoritarian regime to maintain its monopoly on power, which becomes more diffused. Industrialization also fosters the growth of a questioning middle class that becomes more vocal as its wealth increases (not to mention a vibrant working class that is also a vital force for democracy, as Rueschemeyer, Stephens, and Stephens note in Capitalist Development and Democracy.) In addition, authoritarian regimes inevitably weaken over time as they fail to meet expectations and public dissatisfaction increases; they also become stale and are usually incapable of renewing themselves. They eventually lose legitimacy as the coalition of interests that supports them begins to splinter. Just a few more headaches for Jiang Jemin and his crew.

I had to read this book for a class and I really got a great background in democracy in developing countries. Well written and informative.