Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence

Previously, Schwartz wrote The Art of the Long View as well as The Long Boom (which he co-authored with Peter Leyden and Joel Hyatt) and When Good Companies Do Bad Things (which he co-authored with Blair Gibb). In this volume, he addresses many of the same issues as in his previous works. However, in my opinion, he examines them in much greater depth while addressing other issues suggested by questions such as these: 1. In an increasingly more turbulent environment, how to recognize and understand "the inevitable surprises that lie ahead of us, particularly in the next twenty-five years"? For example, how to know what is needed to be known and then obtain that knowledge? 2. Given those "inevitable surprises," which steps must be taken that would allow a company or organization to thrive? For example, how to overcome "two different types of natural [but fundamentally irresponsible] reaction": denial and defensiveness? 3. What to do when new complications reveal themselves? For example, how can an "early-warning system" identify them so that appropriate and effective responses can be made in a timely manner? Schwartz's response to only one of these questions is worth far more than the cost of his book. As he explains in Chapter 1, "Underneath the specifics, between the lines on every page in this book, you will find a basic message about the future in general: The challenges facing civilization right now are immense -- arguably more difficult than they have been during the lifetime of any living person. At the same time, because of advances in knowledge and technology, the human race has never been so capable. And since most of our challenges are caused, at least partly, by our own activity, this expanded capability is a double-edged sword." In ways and to an extent which Schwartz carefully explains, these are (in Dickens' words) the best of times and the worst of times. The material is carefully organized within nine chapters whose titles range from "Inevitable Surprises" to "Inevitable Strategies." Of special interest to me is what Schwartz has to say in Chapter 5, "The Thoroughly New World Order." Here is a representative portion of Schwartz's rigorous narrative: "In the words of Robert Kagan, Americans are from Mars and Europeans are from Venus. And then there is a third set of nations, increasingly chaotic and disorderly, in danger of being written off as marginal by the rest of the world. Their power, when they have it, is the power of terrorism. And if that is the only power available to them, they will use it more and more frequently." How prescient. It is important to keep in mind when reading this book that Schwartz is not relying on a real or imagined crystal ball. He would be the first to insist that, at best, useful speculation identifies degrees of probability. This is especially true of efforts to reduce the number of what would otherwise be "inevitable surprises." Here's a hypothetical example. (Mine, not Schwartz's.) Le

Change is no news. The great changes that will alter the commercial, political and demographic workings of the world are already underway and some of their consequences are quite predictable, says author Peter Schwartz. He outlines a variety of the more important changes, particularly in places such as China and India, and limns scenarios that represent possible futures. Perhaps this sort of book is inevitable at the turning of a century, of a millennium. The author, in fact, compares his work to predecessors at the end of the nineteenth century. Although some of his predictions fall far short of shocking - for example, global warming and aging populations are hardly undiscovered issues - the exercise of thinking about scenarios and preparing strategies is a good one. The book is also entertaining, because Schwartz writes with a light hand and a casual style. We believe this book would be a good airplane read. It would certainly be appropriate for a long flight, since air travel contributes to some of the more important changes the author discusses. And, if you read it, the time will fly.

Heartily enjoyed this book. Got me thinking long-term about some of the possibilities for the future that you don't find in the newspapers e.g. the impact of AIDS in places like Russia and India and how that could affect future growth. The way the author can say pretty well what will happen based on current evidence is an amazing tool that should only grow in importance, yet it does not take away the free will to change. Makes you appreciate the world will be even more amazing in the future.

In Inevitable Surprises, veteran futurist and scenario constructor, Peter Schwartz, takes an assignment done for Citicorp in 2001 and turns it into a discussion of seven themes for the future.Here is the book's structure:Chapter 1: Inevitable SurprisesChapter 2: A World Integrated with EldersChapter 3: The Great Flood of PeopleChapter 4: The Return of the Long BoomChapter 5: The Thoroughly New World OrderChapter 6: A Catalog of DisorderChapter 7: Breakthroughs in Science and TechnologyChapter 8: A Cleaner, Deadlier WorldChapter 9: Inevitable Strategies In chapter 1, he argues that scenarios can predict the future. His most telling example is having helped develop a scenario involving airplanes destroying the World Trade towers for the Hart-Rudman Commission that was reported a few months after President George W. Bush took office in 2000. But no one paid attention. He cites several other examples of denial that have led to corporate disasters from ignoring scenarios he helped construct. If you would like to learn more about scenario construction, I also highly recommend his fine book, The Art of the Long View, which was published in 1991.What can we expect now? "First, there will be more surprises. Second, we will be able to deal with them. Third, we can anticipate many of them."Chapter 2 begins by pointing out that the U.S. retirement age began climbing in 2001 and will probably continue to do so. People are living longer, are healthier, and either want to work (as his examples of wealthy, educated people show) or have to work (as his example of the airline attendant in her 70s who cannot afford to retire shows). Even after retirement, these people will be active and be part of society. Strom Thurmond's retiring from the Senate at 100 is described as what could become the norm in the future. Chapter 3 is more about migration than population growth, which is expected to be pretty much over worldwide in the next 50 years. He focuses on Asians and Hispanics in the U.S., unwelcome Muslims in Europe, and Chinese become mobile around the world.Chapter 4 describes a return of the old drivers of economic growth: greater productivity; better communications; and greater globalization. He feels that the next 3-4 years might be so-so, but that the good times will be back by late in the decade.Chapter 5 was written before the war in Iraq began, but it describes the issue of having the U.S. operate unilaterally even when the international community doesn't agree -- becoming a rogue superpower in the eyes of much of the rest of the world. He builds up a theme that nations which are orderly internally and encourage order internationally will do best. Most countries will learn to compete in fostering orderliness, sort of like Singapore.Chapter 6 describes a world of continuing terrorism, and high costs to offset it. This is not because terrorism really threatens individuals . . . but because the thought of terrorism is intolerable. By c

This is a good book. In addition, I recommend "Strategic Organizational Change" by Michael Beitler.