High Noon for Natural Gas: The New Energy Crisis

I recommend this book to anyone interested in peak oil and gas. I've read many books on "peak oil", but this is the first one I've seen about "peak natural gas." It is very informative, understandable, well written, and well researched with copious endnotes. One of this book's strengths is that it takes a global perspective on gas supply. Although Darley's warnings are directed primarily to the United States and Canada, he goes into global supply and demand, country by country and region by region, in a way that few other books do. If any Republicans who still like Bush read this book, they may be turned off by Darley's politics. Some Bush loyalists might even call Darley anti-American for being strongly critical of the Bush regime, its foreign policies, and its energy policy. But to right-wingers who say, "America, love it or leave it," remember, this author is not American, he's British! Bush is not his president, so he has no obligation to support Bush, his policies, or the policies of other American administrations. I think this is an advantage, because it gives Darley the independence to speak freely about America from an outsider's perspective, the way the world sees us, as few Americans are able to do. My main criticism of this book concerns its suggested solutions to the problem of peak oil and gas. I once criticized a peak oil book by a different author for putting too much emphasis on coal and nuclear power as the solution, ignoring solar and wind, but this book goes too far in the opposite direction! Darley simply writes off coal as too dirty to use and nuclear as too dangerous to use, devoting only about a page to each one. Renewable energy and conservation will be very helpful, true, but Darley is dreaming if he believes that when America is freezing in the dark with no oil or gas, we're going to leave all our coal in the ground, not burn it, just because it's dirty! That is unrealistic. I'm an environmentalist, but face it, there's no way we will abandon both nuclear power and coal. The only way we will avoid burning more coal is to use nuclear power, and the only way we will avoid using more nuclear power is to burn coal. This book is definitely worth reading, at least so you will know what the future holds for Americans, Canadians, and the rest of the world.

The "Natural Gas" crisis is the "sleeper" energy crisis of our time; while all the focus has been on oil, the price of natural gas has gone up five-fold (versus two or three fold for oil). Mr. Darley's book (published in 2004) is written from an "environmental" perspective more than an "economic" perspective, which may be offputting to some. However, his tecnhical research is thorough and his insights appear to be "right on" as far as events have unfolded over the past year. His main contention is that natural gas production in North America has probably peaked and is headed down, and that the alternative -- importing liquified natural gas (LNG) -- is probably not realistic or even a good idea, given the costs, difficulties in siting LNG facilities, and the long term depletion of hydrocarbon fuels in general. Instead of reading another "oil" book, I'd recommend this one on natural gas, until some other newer book comes out to knock this one back in the queue.

2003, Department of Energy (DOE) reported US Natural Gas reserves at 183 tcf/ng (Trillion Cubic Feet of natural gas). Two years prior, 2001, US Natural gas production fell 19.61 tcf/ng and 18.96 tcf/ng in 2002. In 2001, 90 tcf/ng was produced and marketed. The author predicts Natural gas production too peak in 2010. Natural Gas wells rose from 373,304 to 383,626 from 2001 to 2002, a sign wells are drying up. More that half of US domestic gas production comes from the gulf region, called the Outer Continential Shelf). US needs 23 tcf/year for consumption. 2004, Canadian reserves stood at 59 tcf/ng. Canada supplies almost all of US natural gas imports. 2003, Canadian production fell 5 percent leading to a 15% decline in exports to the US. Britian's North Sea gas production is declining. Britian is importing Algerian Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) and in 2005, Norway gas production is expected to increase as Northern Sea production declines. Indonesian Archipelago has 90 tcf/ng in reserves and it is experiencing production decline. Should Indonesia manage a 2 tcf/year projected to last 10-20 years. Russia is reputed to have the largest gas reserves in the world standing at 1680 tcf of ng. Russia extracts 20 tcf/year and exports 6 tcf/year. Siberia is Russia's largest field and Urengoi contains 230 tcf of ng. Iran has the second largest reserves. Iran has 812 - 940 tcf/ng. Iran has large reserves undevelopment and is a NG net importer. Iran tensions arise of contention over ownership of the Caspian Sea. Iran's population is growing fast and demand from gas is strong in the domestic economy. Qatar NG reserves stand at 509-910 tcf/ng and Kuwait stands at 52 tcf/ng and Iraq stands at 100 tcf/ng Mexico has become a gas importer. DOE predicts Mexico will start exporting gas to the US by 2019. Venezula has large gas reserves standing at 148 tcf/ng. Caspian basin stands at 232 tcf/ng in reserves. NG is used in transporation, heating, fertiziler, production of hydrogen, and electricity production. A hydrogen society seems to be too slow in its implementation and adoption to avert crisis. So, my prediction is that we will see an electricity society: electricity for heating, transportation, and production. Increased electricity production too the grid will come from coal and nuclear power plants. People will start driving electric cars, ride electric trains, enjoying more electric appliances, and convert their homes to run solely off electricity. A complete conversion too electricity will significantly increase the cost of living. As usage increases demand for cheaper power will push price per kilowatt down. The hydrogen society will eventually emerge. Hydrogen is a pure form of the hydrocarbon NG and it is a commodity. Commodities are used by large business to remain rich, but not before these tycons will be required to spend billions into the infrastructure of the next generation production structure to produce hydrogen.

Darley gives a wonderful overview of the Natural Gas industry and how it works. He does not get too technical or bogged down in details. Keeps the flow of the read focused on the "big picture". Although he has a "wee-itty-bit" of a liberal lean to his perspectives, the overall content is generally focused on fact and well accepted economic principles. I found the time spent reading this book well used. Darley was rarely verbose and delivered a lot of insight into the Natrual Gas industry as source of energy for today and the future.

Environmental researcher Julian Darley's High Noon For Natural Gas: The New Energy Crisis by Julian Darley is a highly documented and timely expose of the natural gas industry, American increasing dependency on natural gas, and the implications for environmental, political, and economic issues. A sharp wake-up call to the environmental and economic dangers of increasing dependence upon natural gas to generate electricity, High Noon For Natural Gas pulls no punches in its scrutiny of the history and future of national gas consumption. A chilling expose into a very serious social problem, one with the potential to shake the nation's future more severely than its dependence on oil. Highly recommended.