The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Global Financial Catastrophe

Jeremy Leggett is a very, very smart man. I enjoyed his book "The Empty Tank" very much. The book is well written and interesting to read. I am more concerned with declining oil production and falling global water tables than climate warming, but again, Mr. Leggett is a reasonable man, well educated and knows geology and the oil business. He has important ideas. Very good book. Regards, Keith Renick, Peachtree City, Ga.

As an investor who continue to research this area, I found the book very concise and easy to read without the need for a technical background. A good summary of many related subjects in one book. I share the author's views on depletion and the long term advantages of renewables and its required support and adoption. However, I found his imminent doomsday scenario of a 1929 style depression triggered by 'an empty tank' to be without supporting analysis. If this is a 'wake up' call for industry and society to act, I am all for it.

Leggett begins by reminding us that oil is vital to almost everything we do. The world currently consumes about 29 billion barrels/year, and U.S. officials estimate this will rise to 43 billion by 2025. With this increase, the U.S. will find itself more tightly tied to mid-East rulers - yet, at least one estimate is that raising CAFE requirements 2.7 mpg would eliminate the need for Saudi and Iranian oil. Instead, we have allowed SUVs to be largely exempted from efficiency requirements, resulting in a DECREASE in mpg in the last decade. One expert suggests that the U.S. Armed Forces are increasingly being transformed into a global oil-protection force; the U.S. recently invaded oil producer #15 because its ruler was a tyrant using deadly force against his own people, while ignoring #1, #2, #4, #6, #10, #12, #13, and #14 - perhaps the real reason is that producer #15 is also #3 in reserves. Leggett, a Cambridge PhD in geology, has no doubt that a peak in oil production is coming - the only question is "when?" The most optimistic (U.S. government and oil companies) projections predict the peak will occur in 2030, the least optimistic (leading independent geologists) see this occurring much sooner - 2005. The optimistic rely in part on relief via Alberta's oil sands and Wyoming's oil shale. However, even the most optimistic oil sands estimates foresee about 3 million barrels/day by 2012 (only 3% of total demand), while pessimists are doubtful that enough water and natural gas (for heating the oil) can be utilized to achieve this. Similarly, optimists see 2 million barrels/day from Wyoming oil shale by 2011, while pessimists doubt the environment can support even that. Another source of optimism is mid-East countries' claims of ability to easily ramp-up production. Leggett writes, however, that even taking them at their word (and there are reasons not to), this would not cover increased demand by 2011 (assuming 1.5%/year increase), or today (assuming a 3.5%/year increase - that of China and the U.S. already). The one topic presented that I did not understand involves converting coal to gasoline - developed and utilized by Nazi Germany during WWII. Leggett states that China is producing this, and expected total costs are $15/barrel - certainly a bargain at today's prices, but Leggett does not treat this as a potential solution to oil shortages. (It would still produce CO2.) As for natural gas - Leggettt says 40% of U.S. reserved have been used, 70% of reserves lie within Russia and the mid-East, and U.S. demand is expected to grow 50% by 2025. Leggett cites a few instances of oil companies threatening individuals and organizations with loss of support for publishing predictions of near-term shortages - the likely reason being immediate and drastic losses in their stock values. And then there is the accompanying problem of global warming. The insurance industry represents about 10% of the global economy and is at high risk of bankruptcy via su

Of the 8 or so books I have read on peak oil, this one is the most compelling, reasonable and well-informed. If you are to read only one book on peak oil, this is the one to choose. Leggett has the credibility of being a former professor of geology, a former oil industry insider (who then converted to a global warming and oil depletion activist), and who now runs his own renewable energy company. He knows the insiders of both the oil business and oil-related government energy institutions. He knows what makes them tick. He correctly notes that we can't rely on the energy companies or government to give us warning or leadership regarding oil depletion. Instead, the demand for renewable energy must come from a groundswell of public concern and support, until it becomes the tipping point that affects our institutions. This is a change that will come from the ground up, not from the top down. Although he sees a virtually unavoidable peak oil economic depression in the near future, he does offer a ray of hope that we can cure our self-destructive oilcoholism with renewable energy -- and do so at the grassroots individual and community level. Highly recommended.