Gray Dawn: How the Coming Age Wave Will Transform America--And the World

Pete Peterson has written several books on the looming bankruptcy of the Social Security system. In this book, he covers the G-7 nations, which are in worse shape than the United States is. On page 72, he makes a point that I should have seen sometime over the last 41 years, when I first began looking into this problem. An unfunded liability must be amortized, just like a home mortgage. As of 1999, the unfunded liability of Social Secutrity was $10 trillion. The unfunded liability of Medicare was also $10 trillion. The yearly amortization payment that the U.S. government must set aside each year to fund these two programs over the next 30 years at 6% interest is $1.4 trillion per year. You can verify this on any amortization calculator on the Web. Just take off 9 zeroes when you enter 20,000, and stick them back on when you derive the yearly amortization figure.The estimated U.S. government budget for fiscal 2000 is $2 trillion. This means that, in order to fund these two off-budget programs, the government must spend 75% of its budget.Peterson might also have made this point: If (if!!!!) the government does not do this, then this year's $1.4 trillion shortfall must be added to the total unfunded liability. And if the government refuses to fund next year's amortization schedule, it will add another $1.5 trillion. And so on, until.... "Sorry, gramps: no more payments to you." I'm age 58. That's me. The Federal Reserve System will create the money, thereby creating mass inflation, or else Congress will move up the retirement age, year by year, stiffing the geezers. The government-guaranteed retirement myth will end.The book shows that Japan will hit the actuarial brick wall in 2003. Italy will hit it in 2005. The G-7 dominoes will topple.This is a great book. When the chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations says a crisis is looming, you had better believe it.

This is a useful and interesting book. It is about a crucial subject. It is particularly timely for anyone interested in both government policy and investment strategies for the 21st century. Demographic trends will be a driving force in the new century. In my recent book, Winning the Global Game, I examine population growth in the emerging markets at great depth. Peterson contributes a very useful focus on the implications of the aging waves that will sweep over every advanced economy. He does the best job I have seen on this key topic.

If you invest in the stock market and want to know the trends for the next 10 to 30 years you need to know the demographics detailed in Gray Dawn. Peterson also compares the U.S. to the other 22 developed nations of the world and the econonics of an aging population. A fascinating book .

Peter Peterson does it again! I've read his other books, and this one is arguably the most compelling. The reason is simple: Mr. Peterson takes his concerns about the coming U.S. age wave and globalizes them, talking about how the aging of the industrialized world is likely to overwhelm countries that are totally unprepared for this demographic tsunami. For those who like to read public policy prophesy, this book is a gem. And it is also very scary, because it is rooted in a plethora of facts--ones that are very difficult to refute.