Getting Russia Right

"Democracy, historically, is a fairly late child of capitalism." This concise statement, buried halfway through this slim volume, goes a long way to summarizing Trenin's well-argued point. The West gets it wrong, he says, when it sees Russia as a failed democracy. Instead, it needs to look at Russia as an emerging capitalist society, where private ownership is creating stakeholders in the system, which will inevitably lead to a rule of law (one's property, after all, needs to be protected), which will only then lead to a more democratic society. The point is well taken. As is this: "Russia is probably not going to join the West, but it is on a long march to become Western, `European,' and capitalist, even if not for a long while democratic." We do best, therefore, not to emphasize our differences or the distance yet to be traveled, but to embrace the progress made and help ensure that it is permanent (for Trenin, that means encouraging consumerism, trade and business investments). As Trenin, no apologist for Putin, well knows, Russia's democratic future is not assured, and the Kremlin's parliamentary puppeteering could well turn sour. It brings to mind a summary made some years ago by a respected economist: It takes Detroit a decade to design a single new car. Yet we somehow expected Russia to redesign and remake a whole country in little more time than that. (Reviewed in Russian Life)

The author utterly hits the nail on the head with his analysis of modern Russia. The current administration's Russia policy was to treat the country as a failing democracy as opposed to a emerging one. Russia will likely never be a pro-U.S. country in the sense of an Australia or Japan, it sees itself as a great power that should at least be on equal terms with the most advanced nations on Earth. Putin's frustration & anger & that of many Russian's is understandable. Bush Sr promised not to enlarge NATO and Clinton moved Nato to their doorstep. The current government feels encircled by hostile American interests. High oil and gas prices have allowed the Putin camp to restore a measure of economic stability to the country when compared the chaos of the Yeltsin years. Yet the minimum wage was just raised to $88 a month. At least half the population lives in poverty. The author is correct in that the West needs to look at Russia in new terms of a re-emerging capitalist society not in the old Soviet term. The biggest threat to Russian stability is economic. So much of the GDP of the country is related to Oil & Gas, as was seen during the late Breznhev and Andropov years, prices for both can suddenly become depressed without warning. The West needs to do more to help Russia diversify it's economy. As in Soviet times Russian manufacturing is at least 70 years behind other G8 nations, the country's infastructure is falling apart. Hillary will have to formulate a realistic policy to Russia one that is based on a solid working relationship based on mutual respect for the other's interests. I doubt Russia & America will be allies in the sense America & Europe are but the relations need not be so hostile either.