Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069

I think Strauss and Howe are on to something. Remember we are in the realm of social sciences, and no analytical model is ever 100% correct; if you reach 60% that's good. I think Howe and Strauss cleared this hurdle by a wide margin. I support my opinion on the following considerations. First, based on all the different generations I have met so far the Strauss and Howe model fits well. The G.I., Boomers, Thirteenth (Generation X), and Millennials (Generation Y) are well captured. The principal callings of various generations as described on page 367 and principal endowment activities on page 371 seem accurate. Second, this book was first published 16 years ago. And, the analysis has held up well with the passage of time. Part III of the book describes the future (post 1991). You obviously can pick errors. But, overall they got it right. Some of their calls are prescient. Such as: "... by the year 2000, midlife women will surge into boardrooms, media anchor booths, university presidencies, and Congress-and will begin making plausible runs for the White House." And, "... the Boom may split along geographical lines-for example, with urban, bicoastal New Agers squaring off against heartland evangelicals." Also, "... to elder Boomers, `retirement' will... be of little consequence. The very concept of a fixed retirement age will blur, late-in-life career changes will be encouraged." And, "Great peril might arise if Boomers find themselves confronting religious fundamentalists whose inner zeal matches their own... Make no mistake: faced with crisis, this generation [Boomer] of onetime draft resisters will not hesitate, as elder warrior-priests, to conscript young soldiers to fight and die for righteous purpose... As Boomers begin endorsing global crusades, the 13ers [Gen X] will turn toward isolationism." Remember all these statements were written in 1991. They demonstrate foresight that is way beyond luck. Third, their generational cycle model has several well established precedents ranging from Homer to contemporary social scientists including one nearly identical one by Samuel Huntington, my favorite political scientist, who wrote the equally seminal The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. I liked this book for many other reasons too. Appendix A that describes in much detail their whole theory of generational-historical cycle is fascinating. Additionally, as a byproduct I have learned a whole lot about American history. Their model does a good job of explaining Americans ability for self-renewal that is way more pronounced than for Europeans and Asians. The authors state this is because other cultures are much more constrained by the weight of tradition. Having lived in both Europe and the U.S., I do agree. If you enjoy this book, I also recommend Carroll Quigley Evolution of Civilizations. This author shows that entire civilizations follow a defined life cycle.

Strauss and Howe have written several books since this one, expanding upon their general historical thesis. But this one is the seminal book, the important one, and the one on which the others are based. The book basically is a theory of American history that is premised on generational behavior. The authors have been quite successful in explaining and in some instances predicting the cycles of events, values and opinions of American society. It's very much worth reading simply because the reader is likely to experience an enhanced understanding of what is happening around him/her in the body politic. The basic insight in this book is a simple one: Instead of trying to build a theory of American history (as did Arthur Schlesinger) that is based on unexplained "cycles" and "swings" from liberal to conservative and back again, why not simply look at how American generations behave as they age? When you do that, as Strauss and Howe have found, you find that American generations behave with a certain consistency throughout their lives. If their formative experiences push them in a certain direction while young, they'll continue to act in that way as they get older. That is, if you understand that history is really the process of different generations moving through time, then the swings of American history no longer look so mysterious; they appear as predictable manifestations of the fact that different generations with different life experiences have risen to the foreground. Of course, you don't want to take all of this too sweepingly, or else it starts to seem like astrology or historical biorhythms. Generations are diverse groups, and no two people within a generation are exactly alike. But there are clear trends of generational behavior, which Strauss/Howe substantiate quite well. Their basic model is that there are four basic generational types, which tend to occur in this order: Idealist, reactive, civic, and adaptive. The GI generation (born 1902-1924) that fought WWII is a classic example of a "civic" generation. Consider their life experiences; when they came of age, they were asked en masse to participate in the greatest government-directed effort imaginable, fighting and winning WWII. Then when they got done with that, many of them went to school on the GI bill. When they were young, government spending and focus was oriented on youth. When they aged, government spending and focus shifted along with them, to where it is now focused on their elderly group, through Social Security, Medicare, and the other elderly programs that dominate the federal budget. It was natural that this generation would come to think of government's priorities being oriented in their direction as the natural order of things. They are civic-minded and they tend to have a more benign attitude towards government than do other generations. Accordingly, they are generally suspicious of change in the government approaches they know (for example, str

The theme of the book is that American history follows a repeating pattern comprised of four sequential "cohort generations" roughly 22-years each in length, thus the pattern repeats about every 88 years, give or take. This is slow reading, but well worth the effort. If you expect to skim this book and get anything but sophomoric value out of it, forget it. The amount of research and scholarship to conceive the theory and back it up with examples is staggering to contemplate. No writers in the 20th century come even close to developing such a theory so well, although the authors readily admit that the seminal concepts for such a theory were suggested by half-a-dozen or so writers in the 18th and 19th centuries.They use tables and figures to very good effect at appropriate places, and have extensive appendices and a helpful glossary to help you try to keep the nomenclature they use straight. Find the glossary and refer to it often after you begin reading.At the very end of the book they pull summarize their theory in a comprehensive one-page table that can be used as a check list of the concrete supporting facts and characterizations they develop in the rest of the book.The Appendices explain the why and how of developing their theory. Source material is extensively documented in Endnotes, with an extensive list of additional reading, as well as a Name index. The Table of Contents is very helpful for going directly to material and sections. It reflects their organized, methodical approach to their explication of the theory.It is a great piece of scholarship that I wish I had known about when it was first published. I was halfway through it, and ordered several more to send to friends and relatives. Of the generations of which I have personal knowledge, they seem to be dead-on with their descriptions, finding something good and bad in characteristics of each of them. It is timeless as to those generations which have passed completely away, and time will tell about their objective assessment of the endowments that current generations will leave for the future.Be forewarned that the authors' objective assessment of the personality characteristics of the "Boomers" (the cohorts from 1943-1960) do not paint a very nice picture of them from their "rising adult" phase through "midlife" through "elderhood". Arrogant, self-centered, self-absorbed, self-righteous, intolerant. As I said: dead-on. They still have a chance to redeem themselves as Elders (but I'm not holding my breath).Every history book I read from now on will be with the benefit of the insights I gained from this book. The Iliad and the Odyssey are worth a re-read from point of view of the concepts in this book.As another reviewer said, buy two, and keep one on hand to give to someone you like who you think will benefit from it.

Authors Neil Howe and William Strauss explore the history of American generation more in depth than in their other book The Fourth Turning. Generations is most valuable for giving the reader insight into the mind set and behavior of different generations and how they react to one another. It gives you a greater understanding of people, generations, and how they affect history. Strauss and Howe take a diplomatic approach in their evaluation of different generations stating that they have their strengths and weaknesses and hence I came up with the above title for the review to describe the book. A basic explanation of their theory is that history moves by seasons from spring to winter. In spring, there is a civilizational high of good behavior, peace, and prosperity but also stultifying conformity and spiritual deadness. In summer, there is a consciousness revolution, in which the younger generation rebels against their elders and their institutions. In fall, there is an unraveling in which people turn inwards and focus on their private satisfactions and let public institutions and the community values fall into neglect. In winter, there is a crisis of usually war or economic depression that forces everyone to become more communal and morally strict again.The generations are of 4 types. A prophet generation is born in a civilization high of springtime. They are inwardly focused on spiritual values. They rebel in youth, but become morally authoritarian in old age during a crisis. A nomad generation is born in a summer of consciousness revolution and aren't raised very well since their elder parents are more focused on themselves than their children. This generation is considered a lost or bad generation in which crime and immorality increase with its rising. A hero generation is born in the fall of an unraveling; they become the heroes during a crisis when they are young adults. An artist generation is born during a crisis; they are a meek and mild generation who are sensitive to other's needs and are indecisive as leaders.When reading the book I couldn't help noting that a prophet generation often generates an unneeded crisis to solve. President George W. Bush is of a prophet generation and I kept thinking of him as a prime example of that, making Saddam Hussein to be bigger threat than he really is. I also made judgements against the artist's generations emphasis of plurality and diversity and the expense of cultural cohesion. I made judgements against the hero generation for hogging most of the public spending on themselves, letting young people fend for themselves. I made judgements against my own nomad generations for their excessive love of tasteless entertainment and general down in the dumps depression and negativity.It was also interesting to note that during civilizational crisis and high, society is generally anti-female and pro-male in its outlook. In a consciousness revolution and an unraveling, it is general pro-female and anti-male. D

A friend of mine lent me this book in 2002. Skeptical about any book purporting to predict the future, I immediately read their predictions section - after all, the book was published ten years before. To my surprise, I found that their predictions for 1992-2002 were largely correct! So I started again, at the beginning. The book is a work of genius. The central tenet of this book is that generations don't age the same way, and when looking at generations through history, the correct way to look at them is by cohort - that is, by groups with similar birth years - rather than by age. In other words, if you're born in 1950 and grow up in the '60s and '70s, you'll be different at age 50 than you will if you're born in 1970 and grow up in the '80s and '90s. Strauss and Howe then trace a number of generational cohorts through American History, and find evidence of a cycle of generational types - usually a four part cycle, but in one case a three part cycle. For example, they liken Gen X (whom they call "13ers"), born in 1961-1980, to the "Lost" generation born in the late 1800s. As a trailing edge boomer, born in 1960, I was not surprised to find that the authors, both boomers, correctly identify the defining characteristics of my generation - characteristics that I happen to dislike, as I'm in the minority that don't fit the mold all that well, but that I have to acknowledge as accurate for the majority. On the other hand, the description of the Silent generation, to which my parents belong, was an eye opener - it explained well why my fathers views of what different stages in a man's life are like seemed to alien to me. The description of Gen X was likewise enlightening, both in terms of explaining some of my previous business interactions with Gen Xers (they had always seem so surprised when someone actually gave them a break - turns out it's because they hardly ever got breaks from boomers) and helped me understand and interact much better with one particular Gen X who is very important to me - my wife. The description of the Millenials seems to be accurate so far for undergraduates I work with. Two caveats when reading this book - first, remember it's American history, and the conclusions don't apply to those born overseas; second, the authors seem to emphasize the optimistic view of the future, for example focusing on the possibility that the current cycle will be a triumphant four part cycle, rather than an agonizing three part cycle as the Civil War cycle was. We don't yet know which way things will go.