Future Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty, and Profit from Change

Future Savvy has had a profound impact on the way in which I evaluate forecasts, interpret information, and assess the structural components of change. Adam Gordon provides a clear, well-ordered methodology that serves to illuminate the relevance and validity of forecasting information - leading us, ultimately, to make better-informed decisions about the future. Future Savvy captures the essence of crucial concepts in strategic foresight and provides immediately useful tools and approaches that allow the "forecast consumer" to better judge the real threats and opportunities.

The future ain't what it used to be said Yogi Berra. Maybe he was thinking of the many failed predictions of the future that have been served up over long periods of time by futurologists, experts and ordinary people alike. Berra could have said it ain't easy to remember the future. At least not everything that is being said about it. And that may be just as well as most of it will probably turn out to be wrong. Then again, maybe not so fast. Help is here as I have recently learned. In Future Savvy author Adam Gordon takes the art of thinking about the future a step further and looks at forecasting and prediction making from the perspective of being the reader, i.e. the consumer, of such information. In plain language and refreshingly free from tables and graphs, Future Savvy takes the reader through a series of forecast and prediction related problems and challenges. And it does so with a great deal of insight and with reference to many little gems of forecast failure. Headlines like "why numbers aren't as solid as they seem", "bias traps" and "chaos, complexity and wicked problems" give you an idea of what to expect. As I was reading through the text and recalling some predictions I myself have seen, I started to get a better understanding of why quite a few went spectacularly wrong. Towards the end I thought this is very interesting but it would be even more so if there had been some reviews of actual forecasts as well. And as I turn the page, voilà there it is. In chapter ten Gordon comments on six actual forecasts applying his own analytical framework. The book then finishes with a summary of important questions the savvy reader of future forecasts must ask. While forecasting techniques at least are better than astrology and fortune telling, they seem to far from always result in reliable predictions. As Gordon puts it in the last chapter, "forecasts are an indispensable but highly patchy guide to the world of tomorrow". Keeping a copy of Future Savvy handy while reading and making sense of forecasts is not a bad idea. It would in fact be a rather good idea, if you also wish to gently step into the future guided by how others say they see it. Some books are interesting and enjoyable to read. Some are useful. In my opinion, Adam Gordon's book is both.

Why do some business predictions come true while others miss the mark entirely? What do companies need to clearly assess their pros, cons, and changing trends? FUTURE SAVVY holds keys to evaluating business, technology, and more, offering a methodology for researching and analyzing trends and data. More than just another business structure guide, it's a key to applying a range of critical tests to business purposes, and is a fine pick for any business collection. Diane C. Donovan California Bookwatch

You will not find a better book than Future Savvy on how to cultivate a forecasting mindset. I teach futuring workshops for mid-career professionals. I have just adopted Future Savvy as a textbook for my graduate students. Why? Future Savvy is accessible. It contains a wealth of managerial wisdom about bias traps, perceptive frameworks, change drivers and change blockers. You may know your industry, but Future Savvy will help you think beyond the limits of trend extrapolation to analyze your changing macro context. It will teach you how to define a cone of uncertainty for your division or product line, and weigh the likelihood of alternatives disrupting your business. Finally, you will take away questions to ask any business or government forecast, to separate the wheat from the chaff. Yes, you could find a more technical book on forecasting methods. You could get a more detailed book on short-term operational business forecasting. You could even buy a more entertaining book on erroneous predictions. But you will not find a better book to under gird both sense making and decision making in an organizational context. Unlike a lot of futurist fluff out there, this book delivers on its promise.