Decision Making with Insight (with Insight.Xla 2.0 ) [With CDROM]

If you've ever asked--or been asked--for a "just give me a number" estimate, this book is for you. It is simply one of the most important texts for Decision Support you can find. This book and supplementary software is an excellent value and a must-have for Program Managers, Project Managers, and Parametricians. Dr. Savage presents a wonderful way to learn a nontrivial subject by integrating concepts into simple learn-by-doing exercises that you can execute in MS Excel (with the included software ad-in). In terms of application, this book is virtually unlimited. If you need to make sound, objective, business-critical decisions, this book will provide you with the tools to do just that. Highly Recommended

I bought this book in 2003 and have learned a lot from it since then. This is not just a book, but a whole decision support system. For starters, just the software on the CD would more than justify the package price. The accompanying Monte Carlo software XLSim (an Excel add-in) is good enough for real applications - it will make you think twice before buying a premium competitor at a much higher price. According to his website, author and Professor Sam Savage discovered that an Algebraic Curtain separated the bulk of his management students from management science. Prof. Savage has successfully dedicated much effort to removing that curtain. He has extensively used Excel, Monte Carlo, and resampling techniques to that effect. This book is an outstanding example of his work. What is really great about this book is that it teaches you potentially complicated techniques through simple and straightforward examples that you can replicate using only Excel and the software included in the CD. The 8 book chapters cover spreadsheet modeling in general, random variables, Monte Carlo simulation, queuing theory, discrete event simulation, Markov chains, forecasting (exponential smoothing, trends, and seasonality), decision trees, linear programming (including the Excel Solver), stochastic and non-linear optimization - all with clear and simple examples in a single book. The author's writing style is informal, easy to read and sometimes even funny. A great learning (and teaching) resource. Highly recommended.

In his book, Decision Making with Insight, Dr. Savage really does lift the algegraic cloud that hinders the learning of management science and modeling. I second the above remark, I wish I had this type of text when I was in MBA school. The examples are truely enlightening. I am actually reading this book for plan fun!

I wish we had this book at Wharton. This is an excellent book on Monte Carlo modeling and optimization, among other things. You just can't beat the value of the book + software, and I personally like XLSim better than Crystal Ball because it gives you the EXACT SAME result, but in a much faster time frame and with far less complicated programming. Dr. Savage teaches you while you do the examples in the book. It is truly a great way to learn a complex, but very rewarding subject. You'll never do an IRR or NPV proforma analysis in the same way again.

Dr. Savage, a second generation statistician and consulting professor at Stanford University, provides a practical and hands-on introduction to analytical decision making. The book is jam-packed with sound theory presented in an easy to read format. The methods presented use the familiar language of Microsoft Excel to crack complicated problems with relative ease! This book & accompanying software helped me better understand 6-years of advanced engineering and business training. Recommended as an excellent resource for researchers, practioners, and educators alike.