Raiffa: Decision Analysis

This book as the rare characteristic of being both simple and rather complete. A well balanced text.

This book is a fantastic learning guide to a complex topic. It will change the way that you think about decision making. It does not adequately cover the effects of behaviorial bias, but it is the best introductory explanatory text on Bayesian analysis that I've seen. It is written for humans by a human. A special note if you are enrolled in API-302 at Harvard: (1) congratulations on joining the club and (2) read this book before the first problem set.

As a manager involved in forecasting and having to guide a firm in a situation where there is uncertainty, I have relied on this very readable and worthwhile book.Raiffa takes the reader into the meat of things without drowning the reader in a jungle of stochastic equations and calculus to scare away all but the hardiest of math majors. Always to the point and using excellent real life examples, this book continues to be a ready reference and guide year in and out. His examples to show that we do have instincts that can be quantified - like the ratio of scotch to bourbon drinkers among physicians - are immediately apparent and draw the reader in. A classic in the understanding of decision trees and probability analysis and recommend this book without hesitation.