Cooperation or Conflict in the Taiwan Strait?

The Taiwan Strait is likely to remain a contested area in world politics for many more years to come, and now that Chen Shui-bian has taken up office as Taiwan's newly elected president, the tension in the strait will probably lose none of its intensity. However, reading this book revealed the fact that in spite of the frequent verbal skirmishes between Beijing and Taipei, lively interaction between both sides of the strait is taking place on many different levels every day: There is reciprocal economic investment, students are taking part in exchange programs, individual travel is booming and further exchanges are being encouraged in such different fields as art and sports. Interestingly enough, all this activity is continuously being overshadowed by the media hype that - unfolding in the U.S. and most European countries - has so far been quite successful in painting a bleak picture of the apparently impending clash between the David and Goliath of the Taiwan Strait. To be sure, it will never be possible to completely eliminate any anxiety that a direct confrontation between the more radical groups in both Beijing and Taipei might lead to a military conflict, but considering the economic investments, international goodwill and - last but not least - people's welfare at stake for both governments, war in the Taiwan Strait seems not a valuable option. Indeed, let it be remembered that even during the most tumultuous period of Beijing-Taipei relations to date in 1995-1996, culminating in the PRC initiating air-sea combat maneuvers in the strait, Beijing authorities sought to minimize the adverse impact on cross-strait trade and investment by sending high-ranking officials on a tour of South China to assure worried Taiwanese businessmen that the heightened political tension would not affect economic relations. Although still years away, peaceful reunification of Taiwan with mainland China is far more probable than bloody conflict, and that is an important lesson learnt from this very necessary book.