Art of Contrary Thinking

In the book The Art Of Contrary Thinking, Author Humphrey B. Neill states: "The crowd is most enthusiastic and optimistic when it should be cautious and prudent; and is most fearful when it should be bold." By reading The Art Of Contrary Thinking, you'll understand human psychology and what contrary opinion is, how to apply it to the markets when investing, and how it can aid you in your critical thinking. Measuring and evaluating the sentiment of the crowd is key to successful trading, because it is the crowd that has the greatest effect on the future price movement of the stock.

A collection of old essays by Neill who followed the market steadily from the depression days to his death in 1977. Neill is from a long gone generation of men and his words don't always translate well to today's Nintendo generation. Neill's sometimes odd writing style doesn't help the flow any. It took me multiple reading to understand his writing style and grasp some points. He's mature, seasoned, a real American original. I think it's a Vermont thing. But the genius of this book lies within the valuable insights and nuggets of wisdom spread out randomly within. That said, some essays are of questionable relevance or downright archaic. But many are golden and relate to all generations. If you have ever REALLY put some skin-in-the-game, you'll relate to his views on patience, risk, and learning to think from both sides of the coin. Find these easter eggs and you will become a better investor. The book is inexpensive and a must-buy for anyone seeking to invest their own money.

An excellent book if you want to think!, what I meant by that is, the author gives you scenarios about when you would use contrary thinking and you have to think and apply the scenario to a time that you have in mind,also talks about mass crowd mentalaty,what kind of people follow the crowd etc.

Often, less experienced investors overlook the big picture topics such as macroeconmics and behavioral finance and focus on the investment book of the month which is invariably trash. This book was originally written many decades ago and the fact that it is still selling is a testiment to its quality. When you look at al of the current investment books out in print, how many do you think will still be selling 40 years from now? Of course, back then, the publishing world was selective. Today, it focuses on publishing books about investing by big name preachers and sports legends or psychopaths with useless TV shows because they know people will buy them. If you cannot appreciate this book then you have a very long way to go towards becoming a good investor. And if you are a good investor, this book is just another step towards your progression into a great investor.

Mr Neill lays out in short, specific chapters, his arguments for why popular opinions often times turn out to be wrong, while the opposite, contrary opinion, would turn out to be corrrect. The historical examples he uses make one wonder if the "New Economy" of the 1990's is really just a precursor to the types of events seen in the late 1920's/early 1930's and the early 1950's, when prominent economists touted a New Era of prosperity (we all know what the happened afterwards). Mr. Neill also cites past writers who analyzed the behavior of man, and how he gets caught up in the "herd". While sometimes getting off the subject, Mr. Neill lays out a clear framwork of how one assesses what the "popular" opinion is, and how to teach yourself not to get caught up in the herd and to think independantly.A highly recommended book for those who wish to understand how contrary minds think, or for those who need a "refresher" (getting your mind out of a rut according to Neill).