A Thousand Barrels a Second: The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World

This is the fourth book I have read in the last several weeks since I first became alerted to the peak oil issue. The others being: Beyond Oil (Deffeyes) The Long Emergency (Kuntzler) The Coming Economic Collapse (Leeb) One excellent feature of Tertzakian's book is his presentation of the history of the prevailing forms of energy that have been used in human history (whale oil, etc). This is a basis for his "break point" theory, which I'm not sure I absorbed all that fully but involves the process by which the human race switches to new source(s) of energy when the dominant existing source is no longer tenable. He mentiones the debate regarding "Hubbert's Peak", the hypothesis that we are reaching the peak of oil production in the current century. At one point he states it as a debate, but I have seen no fundamental disagreement on the issue. There seems to be a widespread agreement that oil, under the narrow definition as the light sweet crude we pump out of the ground, will reach a production peak in this century. There are, of course, the other large potential sources of oil- coal gasification, Oil Sands, and Oil Shale. These exist in large quantities and if oil were produced in large quantities from these sources, the bell curve for global oil production would likely peak at a considerably later date. But Deffeyes, who seems to be the most prominent advocate of the Hubbert's Peak theory, makes clear that he is referring to conventional oil production. So I don't think there is actually any disagreement on this issue, except that there are, no doubt, some cornucopianists who would contend that there is a vast amount more recoverable oil than the Hubbert's Peak curve would claim. Anyway, moving on from that issue: Tertzakian concludes by painting a possible picture of what the energy future will be 10 or so years from now. He clearly is relatively optimistic, which is perhaps one reason his book has received a lot of praise from prominent people. But behind his generally upbeat tone, he is quite forthright in stating that he believes that part of the "rebalancing" process will be some major changes in lifestyle. So he clearly cannot be faulted for holding a "don't worry be happy" outlook regarding the challenges in dealing with peak oil. Even so, I believe the "rebalancing" is likely to play out quite a bit differently than he envisions. There are a couple of issues I don't think he has given due weight to. First of all, in terms of the nature of the energy sources: Previous rebalancings, such as that of the 1970s, have primarily involved shifts between different types of fossil fuels. Perhaps the coming one will as well. With the huge resources of the "more difficult" sources of oil, the world could perhaps continue with an energy economy pretty much the way it is now for another century or so. Eventually, those sources will run out and we will need to switch over to renewables. (although nuclear fusion is a wild ca

This a good basic analysis of the economics of the current energy situation. He gives an interesting historical perspective of energy use starting with whale oil. This helps set the stage for today by showing that current energy situation is just another evolutionary phase of our relationship with energy. The chapter that basically addresses the supply and demand for energy is very good. It explains the relationship between energy use and economic growth, how China is a large contributor for the current price increases, the energy issues for the period 1972 - 1986, the similarities to 2006, and how the current situation is fundamentally different from 25 years ago. With regard to the future the author cuts a middle path between those authors that think that the world as we know is ending and those that think there is no energy crisis. He is marginally optimistic about the next 2 decades, all the while admitting that the rebalancing that will take place after oil prices reach their "break point" will take 10-20 years. The author speaks in terms of years at a relatively high level, but unfortunately life is lived at ground level with monthly bills. The author does not marginalize the problems, he just does not rub our noses in them as others authors have done.

By now, the issues concerning oil depletion have become generally well known; at least to anyone paying attention. By nature and experience, I tend to discount the "sky is falling" arguments from people like Deffeyes and Simmons even though both provide well researched arguments rich in facts. Concurrently, I reject the omnipotent cabal argument from such people as Learsey and his incredibly silly contentions in "Over A Barrel". [Pick your favorite villain: Arab Sheiks, George Bush, Aliens, the Trilateral Commission, ...whatever.] Finally, a book has arrived that takes known and reasonably conjectured facts, and then applies logical economic laws, not pedantic textbook economic dogma. This book does not refer to the supply-and-demand arguments so often espoused that presupposes adequate, if not infinite, supply. Instead, Tertzakian applies the more rational and historical laws of substitution that occur once an economic breaking point has been reached. We may indeed be reaching this breaking point very soon. Now for the rub: in the long term, the author makes very plausible suggestions for the next era of fuel. Unfortunately (or fortunately, I suppose, depending upon your point of view), great fortunes are made and lost in times of disequilibrium. Since both citizens and law makers have ignored the approaching peak oil dilemma for 25 years, disequilibrium could last a good deal longer than it did when whales began to die out, robbing the world of the blubber needed to light its lamps. Still, Tertzakiam's arguments make a great deal of sense. When oil reaches a breaking point, we will move rapidly toward an efficient substitute, not toward economic Armageddon. But, to quote Keynes, "in the long term, we're all dead." I hope that the move toward long-term substitutes occurs a great deal faster than Mr. Tertzakian posits, or the next decade may not be all that fun. Regardless, this is a cogent, fact-laced book that lays out what we will probably encounter in the next decade or two.

Tertzakian and his book stand as a rare find: a work on a timely topic often argued with little information, written by a man with great expertise in a plain and understandable style. His thesis is sobering. The world currently approaches a tipping point, where growth of demand so out paces growth of supply that a paradigm shift becomes the only way to move forward. Tertzakian offers examples of other such shifts, though none appear as deep as a post fossil fuel age -- whale oil may have stood as a primary lighting source, but it was hardly the basis for the entire economy when demand began outstripping supply. While some may complain about certain of the works shortcomings, such as its failure to consider climate change, Tertzakian's work stands as primarily an economic text as well as a primer on this key industry. His choice to focus his book, far from a flaw, inures to his credit. Further to his credit, this author does not pretend that any magic bullet will deal with the situation, nor does he claim to have a crystal ball and map out the future. Instead, he offers a fine primer from which to begin a crucial conversation. For this alone, he has great credit. All of us would do well to read this fine work.

Peter Tertzakian is a rare find -- an expert with credentials who can talk directly to his reader, no matter what level of sophistication that reader posesses. I came to this book with only an avid lay interest in the subject and a preference for timely, well-written nonfiction from people like Gladwell, Zakaria, Shorto -- like that. This book taught me more about energy issues and all the elements at play than I ever realized, and I LOVED IT! Great writing goes a long way. No matter what your background, if you're interested in the subject of oil, you owe it to yourself to read this one.