20:21 Vision: Twentieth-Century Lessons for the Twenty-First Century

A short factual note to all reviewers who have questioned my grasp of the FDI data. Check out UNCTAD's figures on FDI flows in 2003, which are now in. You will find that China has not in fact remained number one recipient. It is still a very big recipient, of course, just as I said in my book. But it was overtaken in 2003 by none other than the United States.TO REPEAT: read the book. It doesn't say China doesn't matter, nor does it say it won't matter. What it does say is that China is growing rapidly from a low base, and will take several decades before it has enough heft to challenge the US. It is like Japan circa 1900, not Japan 1980. It will matter hugely, but has obstacles to overcome before it does, and does carry big political risks--just as Japan did. Bill Emmott

Visions of the future tend to be apocalyptic, whether it be grand geopolitical adjustments, the fear that growth will devastate the environment, or that the Malthusian trap will finally enclose humankind. In fact these types of prophesies make for good reading but, usually, silly predictions. To those who expect to read about the "fall of great powers," "coming anarchies," "clash of civilizations," or "end of histories," (to name a few futuristic bestsellers), Bill Emmott's book will appear rather dull and unimaginative. But it may well turn out to be more accurate than most other looks into the crystal ball. Broadly speaking, forecasts suffer from two drawbacks: either they focus too much on detail and miss important underlying trends, or they try to conceive of a grand vision and lose touch with reality in the process. Bill Emmott, editor of The Economist since 1993, has tried to overcome these two problems by synthesizing his journalistic attention to detail with his historical instincts that add perspective to his argument. The product is a carefully balanced vision of where the world is headed. Mr. Emmott believes that two big questions will define the fate of this century: will American hegemony continue and will capitalism survive? For both, he is optimistic. America's main elements of power, he argues, are unaltered-its tolerance of capitalism, its meritocracy and its focus on education. At the same time, potential rivals, for different reasons, are unlikely to take over any time soon. Terrorism, while important, is also unlikely to play a world-altering role in the coming years.What about capitalism? After the end of the cold war, capitalism's intellectual and political allegiance has grown stronger. This trend is likely to continue, provided that capitalism deals with its biggest challenges-its unpopularity, uncleanness, inequality, and instability. Mr. Emmott goes at great length to show that the capitalist future is not certain-but he also shows with great conviction that most objections to capitalism are unfounded. Mr. Emmott writes that he looks into the future with the outlook of a paranoid optimist: progress will continue, albeit with setbacks here and there. All too often, books on the future take on a big claim and foresee some radical new world order. A book predicting that the status quo will continue well into this century seems out of place with the futuristic literature. That may disappoint many readers. But that does not mean that Mr. Emmott is not right.

I don't know what book these reviewers were reading!Bill Emmott, Editor of The Economist, is in a position to know in great detail the political and economic state of the world. He describes in the book the ascent of democracy and capitalism around the world, along with massive growth of GDP per capita of the planet, during the 20th Century. He also recognizes the potential of backslides of both democracy and capitalism, especially given the cyclical nature of the free market system, and how recession or depression can lead to closing markets and authoritarianism. Yet he points out how we should be "paranoid optimists" about the future, as the rate of democratic and free-market change has been accelerating, especially in the last decade of the 20th Century.Emmott also gives an excellent description of how US government policy turned a stock market bubble burst into the Great Depression through raising interest rates and killing global trade with high tarriffs. Which is timely, as we are in the same situation now, but doing the opposite thing (lowering Fed interest rates, encouraging global trade) than we did in the 30's, and it seems to be working.

Bill Emmott, Editor of The Economist, has published his thoughts on the leading issues likely to confront the world over the 21st century. To provide an historical perspective, he attempts to look back over the last 100 years to identify the primary trends and issues likely to continue over the next 100 years. Overall, he gets it right and provides an intersting, thought-provoking analysis of our current situation. The book (following the format of The Economist) is divided into two sections, each of which focuses on one broad question. The first deals with international relations and focuses on whether America will continue in its role as benevolent world ploiceman. Emmott's thesis is that the US is the first world power whose goals are benevolent in the sense that it seeks to improve the conditions of other countries by promoting democracy and economic freedom. These goals, paradoxically, are likely to boost the political and economic power of other countries, reducing the relative power of the US. He then discusses America's role in the world as it relates to China, Japan, Europe, and terrorism. The second half of the book addresses the future of the world economic system and focuses on the current state and future of capitalism. Emmott identifies the primary complaints against capitalism: Unpopularity, instability, inequality within countries, inequality between countries, and environmental imapacts. In each of these areas, he catalogs the common complaints and offers sound responses, based on the thesis that capitalism, like democracy, is the worst possible system except for all the others. He supports this thesis by examining these other systems and the misery they produced over the last century: Communisn, fascism, Nazism, socialism, all of which share the attributes of centrally planned command economies. He concludes, " The liberal presumption in favor of the market, of capitalism and indeed of freedom itself, is driven by intellectual humility...". To fully appreciate this statement, read 20:21 Vision and Robert Conquest's Reflections on a Ravaged Century, which explains why these ideologies and the absolute certainty of their adherents were the cause of most of the last century's problems.